Population concerns Nepal is looking to address with the 2082 Policy

On the occasion of World Population Day on July 11 (Ashadh 27), Nepal published a new population policy. The Prime Minister’s statement, “Get married at twenty and have three children by thirty,” got huge attention in the social media. As with many of the statements the PM makes, it turned into jokes and memes. Many youths also criticised the government for creating unemployment and focusing on sending the productive population abroad. Although the statement created a buzz, it also made the youths on social media miss serious concerns put forth by the National Population Policy, 2082.

1. Declining Growth Rate

The 2021 National Population and Housing Census (NPHC) averages Nepal’s annual growth rate of 0.92% per year in the decade 2068-2078 B.S. (2011-2021). This is a decline from 1.35% per year in the 2068 (2011) Census. Similarly, the total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to 1.94, well below the desired 2.1. In the last decade, population policies talked about demographic dividend—the higher number of youths contributing to national development. The new trends indicate that Nepal may be losing that edge and have raised many concerns for the future.

1.1 Potential Negative Demographic Dividend

A decrease in the population growth rate implies a smaller number of children and the reduction of the active population, aged 15-59, in the future. Although Nepal hasn’t been able to utilise its 62% active population, a reduction indicates an even worse scenario, where there will be a shortage of human resources for production. This will negatively affect human capital formation and the economic growth.

1.2 Aging Population

In 2068, the population above 60 was 8.1% of the total population. The population of the elderly is now 10.21%. Improved health care has and will shoot up the number even higher in the coming decades. The government may have to spend more on the elderly’s health. The reduced active population will have to spend more on the care of their parents, creating economic pressure.

1.3 Underutilisation of Infrastructure

A lower population may not have the need for a large number of infrastructures. Also, the lack of human resources owes to the decline in development and economic activities.

1.4 Reversal of Family Planning Programmes

The government will now have to encourage youths to have more children, and the PM’s statement seems relevant in that context. However, the majority of the youth are not ready to get married, let alone have three children by their thirties. Employment opportunities are scarce, inflation is high, and there is no encouragement to industries and entrepreneurship. Given our situation, it is easier to press for a lower number of children. How can one think of marrying and having three children when surviving alone is a struggle?

2. Rapid Out-Migration

Nepal has a high rate of out-migration. For instance, in 2023, the Department of Immigration’s data showed that 70,915 (36,663 men and 34,251 women) left the country to reside elsewhere permanently. Similarly, 808,415 Nepali citizens went for foreign employment, of which 89.5% were males. Moreover, 108,542 (~55% male and 45% female) students went abroad to pursue their studies. Very few return back to Nepal. Out-migration driven by globalisation has not only reduced the population but also deprived Nepal of skilled human resources vital for national development.

The fact that more people are settling in other countries with their families means that Nepal is losing its source of remittance. Although the Nepalese diaspora has been contributing to various development endeavours, it is uncertain whether they will continue doing so if they don’t have any familial roots in Nepal.

3. Drastic Change in Technology

In the last five years, technology has changed at a breakneck pace, changing the way the world operates. Many labour-intensive works are now being replaced by automation, robotics, and artificial intelligence (AI). Nepal lags behind in the development and adoption of new technologies. There is also a possibility of reduced labour demand in developed countries. The National Population Policy acknowledges that the rapid growth in technology might elevate the problem of unemployment at home and abroad.

Policy Proposals to Solve the Above Problems

To address the problems caused by low growth rate, the National Population Policy 2082 proposes to revisit and revise family planning programs to align with current and future demographic trends and strengthen reproductive health services. The open-ended policy wording means that for now, the government will work towards increasing birth rate and modifying family planning programmes.

The policy aims to make foreign employment skill-based, prioritise the knowledge on AI, and utilize the human resources on national development. For internal migration, the policy aims to strengthen information and data systems, increase economic activities in rural areas to create employment, and systematize internal migration through integrated settlement development.

For addressing the challenges brought about by technology, the policy proposes revising the education system to be entrepreneurship, and production-focused, prioritize skill and competence enhancement in new technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) for Nepali workers, and increasing investment in productive sectors like tourism, modern agriculture, infrastructure development, and forest product processing to expand employment and self-employment opportunities.

Ground Realities

Despite elaborate policy proposals, the ground realities show a different picture. Infrastructures are subpar, the quality of education is questionable, the influence of globalisation is insurmountable, and the frustration of the youth is higher than Mount Everest. There is no way the government can stop the youth from going abroad in search of opportunities. It might even encourage out-migration to improve the economy via remittance. Unless Nepal improves infrastructures and encourages the youth for entrepreneurship and mass employment, the National Population Policy has very little chance of success.