Author: Sandeept Page 1 of 39

I am a Nepali citizen currently working at Nepal Oil Corporation. I did my Master's in Engineering Geology and I have interests on literature, history, philosophy.

The Nexus of Impunity and Corruption in Nepal: An Analysis

Introduction

The relationship between impunity and corruption challenges the stability of governments, the enforcement of rule of law, and the generation of national wealth. When impunity takes hold within the state apparatus, it creates an operational environment where the formal costs and legal risks of engaging in corrupt behaviour are entirely neutralized by those holding power. The deliberate political influence in law, legal institutions, and processes transcends mere bribery and threatens the very fabric of governance, breeding social, political, and economic conflicts.

Web of impunity and corruption in Nepal
Web of Impunity and Corruption in Nepal

1. Theoretical Framework of Impunity and Corruption

Scholars define two types of impunity. De facto impunity occurs when the state, despite possessing relevant legal statutes, systematically fails to investigate and prosecute those responsible for legal violations due to a lack of institutional capacity, a deficit of political will, or deeply entrenched political interference.1 Conversely, de jure impunity arises when a nation’s legal frameworks contain explicit, codified provisions that grant immunity from prosecution, legally shielding political, military, or bureaucratic personnel from any form of accountability.1

When legal frameworks either lack the necessary enforcement mechanisms to prosecute or are deliberately engineered by the legislature to protect the elite, the resulting culture of impunity severely degrades institutional trust. The impact of such a dynamic is immense. Systemic corruption undermines public confidence in institutional effectiveness and fairness, which are the absolute cornerstones of regime legitimacy.

Theoretical frameworks explore how institutional weaknesses contribute to this nexus. Elinor Ostrom‘s Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework is particularly relevant. Applying the IAD framework to developing democracies reveals how inadequate structures allow political patronage to flourish, as the political landscape often witnesses the favouring of loyal supporters with positions and benefits, thereby superseding public welfare.

Phenomenological interpretations utilizing principal-agent theory, collective action theory, and game theory demonstrate that corrupt behaviour often becomes a normalized “way of life”.2 In systems characterized by particularism, where limited public resources are selectively distributed based on political loyalty rather than universal rights, informal norms frequently prevail over the formal rule of law. This creates a clientelist system wherein corruption thrives unchecked, shielded by networks of powerful actors who systematically block any challenges to the status quo.3

2. History of Impunity in Nepal

The pervasive culture of impunity in modern Nepal is not a contemporary aberration but a phenomenon deeply embedded in the nation’s historical, political, and social evolution. The historical roots date back to the Rana regime (1846-1951), the centralized oligarchic system, where the ruling family and high-level administration operated above the law.4 Financial irregularities committed by the elite supporting the government were almost never investigated, and on the rare occasions they were acknowledged, investigations never resulted in punishments.

This foundational culture of exemption transitioned. This foundational culture of elite exemption transitioned seamlessly into the Panchayat regime, the party-less democratic system that governed Nepal from 1960 until 1990. Politicians aligned with the system were effectively immune to any form of corruption investigation. One of the notable scandals of the era is the “Carpet Scandal” circa 1976, in which the then Prime Minister Tulsi Giri was convicted with 90 other individuals. Four years later, Giri was cleared even though some businessmen got fined.5

The transition to a multiparty democracy in 1990 and the subsequent establishment of a federal democratic republic in 2008 following the abolition of the monarchy were hailed as departures from autocratic governance. However, the legacy of impunity proved highly resilient. The pro-Panchayat leaders easily assimilated with or created pro-democracy parties without any investigation into embezzlements or abuse of authority. In the absence of inadequate legal frameworks and insufficient constitutional checks and balances, political parties quickly adopted the practice of protecting their cadres from prosecution. A paradoxical coexistence of democracy and corruption emerged, where the formal institutions of democratic governance exist, but their substance is entirely undermined by weak institutional accountability and systemic political patronage.4

Furthermore, Nepal’s ten-year civil war (1996–2006) between Maoist insurgents and state security forces has severely compounded the culture of impunity. During the conflict, human rights violations occurred, including extrajudicial killings, torture, and enforced disappearances.1 The Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2006 included explicit commitments to establish a High-Level Truth and Reconciliation Commission to probe these severe violations and ensure accountability.6 Yet, for decades, transitional justice has been consistently thwarted through political maneuvering. While over 60,000 individuals have reached out to Nepal’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission and the Commission on Investigation of Disappeared Persons, few cases have been investigated, and none have been completed.6

Last year, on September 8, Nepal’s Gen Z came out to protest corruption. Chaos ensued after the protests went violent and the state turned brutal, overturning the government within 27 hours. The nation still awaits justice. Reports, such as those from the Karki Commission and the National Human Rights Commission, have recommended investigation against former prime minister KP Sharma Oli; former home minister Ramesh Lekhak; the then inspector generals of Nepal Police and Armed Police Force; and the head of the National Investigation Department of Nepal.26 Ironically, many names that have been called out as suspicious and requiring further investigations have now become MPs and ministers, turning the demands of rule of law and accountability on their head.

The failure to prosecute well-documented conflict-related crimes has reinforced a societal and institutional understanding that the political elite, whether civilian or military, rarely faces consequences for gross human rights abuses or grand corruption.1 The Supreme Court has occasionally attempted to intervene, ruling that courts must provide justice and invalidating amnesty provisions, but practical enforcement remains elusive.7 As said earlier, in Nepal, both de facto and de jure forms of impunity operate simultaneously, leading to grave violations and utterly undermining faith in the government.1

3. Legal and Institutional Weaknesses

The Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) and the Special Court are the major anti-corruption institutions in Nepal. Part 21 of the Constitution of Nepal mandates the CIAA to investigate and prosecute corruption among public officials. It was originally established by the 1991 Constitution and continued under subsequent constitutional frameworks. Following the massive political upheavals of 2006, the jurisdiction of the anti-graft efforts was expanded to encompass former judges and military personnel, domains that had previously been strictly insulated from prosecution under the 1991 Constitution.3 However, deliberate loopholes and political influence encourage impunity.

3.1 The “Policy Decision” Loophole

A primary mechanism sustaining de jure impunity in modern Nepal is the so-called “policy decision” loophole, formally codified in Section 4(b) of the CIAA Act of 1991. This legislative provision explicitly states:

The Commission, pursuant to the Act, shall not take any action in matters relating to any business or decisions taken at meetings of any House of Parliament or of any committee or any policy decisions taken by the Council of Ministers or any committee thereof or judicial actions of a court of law.

The law does not allow the CIAA to conduct investigations on any decision made by the members of the parliament, the council of ministers, or the judges. Also, because the law fails to provide a rigorous, restrictive, and legally binding definition of what constitutes a “policy decision,” politicians and bureaucrats routinely exploit this ambiguity. There is a pervasive and growing tendency among policymakers at the federal, provincial, and local levels to elevate routine administrative actions, public procurement contracts, and lucrative resource distributions to the Cabinet level solely to shield them from CIAA scrutiny.8

The CIAA itself has decried this tendency, officially requesting an end to the practice of taking issues supposed to be decided by a specific ministry or department directly to the Cabinet.8 This deliberate misclassification creates a system where high-level officeholders can indulge in grand corruption with absolute legal immunity, effectively transferring the legal risk away from individual ministers to a collective, unprosecutable body.9

A proposed third amendment to the CIAA Act sought to finally narrow the definition of “policy decisions,” explicitly stating that decisions intended to benefit specific individuals or private organizations, or those contrary to publicly announced policies and public procurement laws, cannot be shielded from investigation.10 However, this provision met fierce resistance from top political leaders, raising deep suspicions regarding the government’s commitment to transparency.11

The Supreme Court of Nepal has wrestled with the limits of prosecutorial discretion and executive immunity. In landmark cases such as Narendra Bahadur Chand v. CIAA (2002), the Supreme Court ruled on the parameters of professional immunity, establishing that while certain officials, like the Attorney General or District Attorneys, enjoy wide discretion in prosecution, decisions made with manifest mala fide intent remain subject to CIAA investigation.12 Public interest litigations have directly challenged the constitutionality of Section 4(b) of the CIAA Act. Petitioners argue that exempting Cabinet decisions is entirely arbitrary, contrary to the fundamental concept of an ombudsman, and directly promotes corruption by providing high-level officials with an impenetrable shield of immunity.9

Further controversy arose in 2024 during the parliamentary discussion of the proposed amendment to the Prevention of Corruption Act (2002). The bill, introduced in 2020, stipulated that “A case must be prosecuted within five years from the date of knowing that such an act has been committed” and extended this protection to retired officials.13 It was widely criticized by legal experts, civil society, and opposition parties (including the RSP and sections of the NC) as a deliberate, calculated attempt to grant permanent retroactive amnesty to politicians involved in massive historical scams. Following massive public outcry and resistance within the State Affairs and Good Governance Committee, the statute of limitations provision was removed from the proposed bill.14

3.2 Disparities in Perception of Corruption and Anti-Corruption Enforcement

The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), published annually by Transparency International, is the primary, most universally recognized metric for evaluating public sector corruption globally. The CPI aggregates governance-related data from numerous independent international organizations, including the World Bank, the World Economic Forum, the Bertelsmann Foundation, and the World Justice Project, to score countries on a scale from 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean).15

Nepal’s CPI score (2015-2025)

Data show Nepal’s performance in controlling corruption has shown absolutely no meaningful improvement.15 A CPI score consistently hovering around 34 indicates a profound, multi-generational failure of the state machinery to implement effective anti-corruption measures, placing Nepal firmly in the lower tier of the global index and categorizing it among nations with highly corrupt public sectors (any score below 50).

The Transparency International report further highlights the immense disconnect between the government and the populace, revealing that an overwhelming 84 percent of Nepalis perceive government corruption as a massive national problem, with 12 percent of public service users explicitly admitting to having paid a bribe within the previous twelve months just to access basic rights.15 The Rule of Law Index, compiled by the World Justice Project, mirrors these severe concerns.

While legislative struggles and CPI indicate troubles in anti-corruption measures, an examination of the Special Court’s historical data reveals a stark and troubling disparity. These underscore a profound tendency to prosecute low-level administrative fraud while high-level systemic embezzlement remains virtually untouched.

Corruption-related cases and outcomes3

Although the data is old, the trend has not changed much. It demonstrates a clear, undeniable pattern: the overwhelming majority of successful convictions relate to relatively minor, easily provable offenses, such as the forgery of fake government certificates. Conversely, complex cases involving unexplained wealth (illicit enrichment), massive public procurement fraud, and high-level bribery exhibit significantly lower conviction rates and constitute a disproportionately small fraction of the total judicial docket.

This statistical reality reflects a broader institutional culture where the CIAA frequently focuses its limited resources on “sting operations” targeting lower-level civil servants, while complex, high-value scandals orchestrated by the political elite remain paralyzed by legal loopholes, intense political interference, and an overarching culture of de facto impunity.16 Over 60 percent of corrupt activities fall entirely outside the practical scope of the law, and the criminal justice system is heavily affected by delays that further undermine deterrence.16

3.3 Institutional Capture through Political Appointments

As we discussed in the article: 7 Constitutional Loopholes and Provisions that Give Superpower to Political Parties in Nepal, political parties have an exceptional influence over political appointments. Such a deeply entrenched “Bhagbanda” system has established a political culture of aggressive quota sharing and factional negotiation among the major political parties. Rather than appointing individuals based on merit, integrity, and professional competence, political parties divide key constitutional and judicial appointments among themselves to ensure mutual protection and to maintain total influence over the state apparatus.

Consequently, the CIAA is frequently staffed by former bureaucrats who maintain deep, ongoing loyalties to the specific political leaders or parties that successfully facilitated their appointments.17 This fundamentally compromises the CIAA’s ability to act as an independent ombudsman. The general public often predicts which party’s quota an appointment fulfills, completely undermining the institution’s credibility.17

This mechanism of political capture extends deeply and destructively into the judiciary. Although the Constitution of Nepal envisions an independent judiciary, free from the legislative and executive branches, the Judicial Council, which recommends the appointment of judges, is heavily influenced, if not entirely dominated, by political interests.18 The politicization of judicial appointments has severely eroded the competency, impartiality, and integrity of the courts. Judges appointed through the Bhagbanda system are widely perceived as beholden to political parties, leading to court verdicts that appear heavily influenced by political pressure rather than legal merit.

Legal experts point to the events of 2013 as a major turning point, when then-Chief Justice Khil Raj Regmi was appointed as the chairman of the Council of Ministers (effectively the Prime Minister) to oversee elections.18 This extraordinary merging of the executive and judicial branches laid the foundation for the profound political exploitation of the judiciary. The Nepal Bar Association has repeatedly highlighted that corruption is deeply rooted within the judicial system, particularly in courts of first instance, where bribes and unethical conduct by legal professionals further subvert justice.7

The systemic corruption within the judiciary was officially acknowledged by a Supreme Court-commissioned task force led by former Chief Justice Hari Krishna Karki. To combat rampant irregularities, undue influence, and corruption within the judicial process, the panel recommended reforms such as the adoption of an automated lottery system for assigning cases to justices, replacing the traditional system where the Chief Justice had the discretionary power to assign benches—a practice ripe for manipulation and executive interference.19 While the Supreme Court recently constituted a task force to implement these recommendations under Chief Justice Prakash Man Singh Raut, the delayed implementation of these reforms underscores the immense resistance from entrenched interests seeking to preserve a pliable, politically responsive judiciary.

4. High-Profile Case Studies of Systemic Corruption

4.1 The Fake Bhutanese Refugee Scam

The Fake Bhutanese Refugee Scam stands as one of the most notorious, internationally embarrassing examples of systemic state capture, fraud, and human trafficking orchestrated by the Nepalese political elite. In this highly complex fraud scheme, a political-bureaucratic syndicate colluded to extort millions of rupees from over 875 Nepali citizens. The victims paid massive sums ranging from Rs 1 million to Rs 5 million under the false promise of being supplied with fabricated credentials identifying them as Bhutanese refugees eligible for highly sought-after third-country resettlement, primarily to the United States.20

This scam stems from the real problem of Bhutanese refugees in Nepal. Between 1990 and 1993, many Nepali-speaking Bhutanese were expelled from Bhutan, taking refuge in camps in eastern Nepal. Between 2007 and the conclusion of the resettlement program, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) successfully resettled over 113,000 genuine Bhutanese refugees from these camps to Western countries, with the US alone taking over 90,000. The racketeers exploited the residual administrative infrastructure and international goodwill of this massive humanitarian effort for pure private financial gain.20

The scandal resulted in the arrests of exceptionally high-ranking officials, including former Deputy Prime Minister Top Bahadur Rayamajhi, former Home Minister Bal Krishna Khand, former Home Secretary Tek Narayan Pandey, and Indrajeet Rai (security advisor to the former home minister).20 The District Attorney Office in Kathmandu filed criminal cases against 30 individuals, indicting them on severe charges of treason, organized crime, fraud, and forgery, specifically seeking aggravated penalties for the public officials involved due to their abuse of office. The involvement of such high-level figures outraged the society and drew deep international concern, with rampant speculations that the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) was monitoring the probe due to the implications for US immigration security.

Top Bahadur Rayamajhi (Left) and Balkrishna Khand (Right)

Despite the unprecedented nature of these arrests, the specter of impunity remained prominent. On July 14, 2026, the Kathmandu District Court gave its final verdict in the case.20 The punishments to the convicts, however, look meagre in comparison to the crimes related to document forgery, organized crime, and crime against the state. For instance, Top Bahadur Rayamajhi has been sentenced to 4 years in prison and a fine of Rs. 40,000, and Balkrishna Khand will serve 1 year in prison and pay a fine of Rs. 15,000.

4.2 The Lalita Niwas Land Grab

The Lalita Niwas scam perfectly exemplifies the exploitation of the “policy decision” loophole to orchestrate the mass privatization of prime state assets. The case revolves around the unauthorized and systematic transfer of highly valuable government-owned land in Baluwatar, Kathmandu—situated adjacent to the official residence of the Prime Minister, the Nepal Rastra Bank, and several VVIP addresses—to private individuals and corporate entities.21 Key figures implicated included Min Bahadur Gurung, the proprietor of Bhatbhateni Supermarket, and former election commissioner Sudhir Shah.21

The land transfer was facilitated through a highly organized scheme utilizing fraudulent documents, phony government stamps, and, crucially, executive approvals obtained directly through the Council of Ministers.21 Initially, the CIAA utilized the provision of Section 4(b) of the CIAA Act to exempt former Prime Ministers Madhav Kumar Nepal and Baburam Bhattarai from prosecution, arguing that their executive directives to transfer the land constituted collective “policy decisions” strictly beyond the commission’s jurisdiction. Instead, the anti-graft body filed corruption charges against subordinate ministers who implemented the directives, such as Bijay Kumar Gachchhadar (Minister for Physical Infrastructure) and Chandra Dev Joshi (Minister for Land Reform).22

However, the Supreme Court mandated that the top decision-makers who facilitated the transfer process via the Cabinet must also be subjected to criminal investigation, challenging the absolute immunity historically granted to Prime Ministerial decrees. Consequently, the Central Investigation Bureau (CIB) recorded formal statements from both former Prime Ministers, setting a new precedent for accountability.21 Despite this, the ultimate resolution of the Lalita Niwas cases remains a critical litmus test for the Nepali state’s capacity to dismantle high-level impunity. Ongoing legal maneuvers continue to determine whether the land will be fully returned to the government and whether all involved actors, including judges and relatives of prominent politicians like Arju Rana Deuba, will face supplementary charge sheets.23

4.3 A Legacy of Unpunished Financial Irregularities

The Fake Bhutanese Refugee and Lalita Niwas scandals are not isolated anomalies but represent the apex of a sustained historical trend of unpunished resource extraction across virtually all sectors of the Nepali economy.

Major Corruption ScandalEstimated Financial Scale / LossStatus / Implicated Entities
Lalita Niwas Land Grab~ Rs. 13 billionFormer PMs, Ministers, Private Developers
False VAT Bill Scandal~ Rs. 10 billionPrivate sector, Revenue Administration
Widebody Aircraft Purchase~ Rs. 4.3 billionMinistry of Tourism, Nepal Airlines Corporation (NAC)
Illegal Fees in Medical Colleges~ Rs. 3 billionEducational Institutions, Regulatory Bodies
Security Printing Press~ Rs. 3 billionMinistry of Communication
38 Quintal Gold Smuggling~ Rs. 1.5 billionCustoms, High-ranking Police Officials
Pokhara International Airport~ Rs. 461.5 millionCAAN officials, Foreign Consultants
Lauda Air Lease Scandal~ Rs. 380 millionHigh-level politicians (historically unpunished)
Table: Major corruption scandals in Nepal

In the recent case of the Chinese-funded Pokhara International Airport, the CIAA filed charges in the Special Court against 21 individuals, including two Chinese officials, for the gross misappropriation of consulting funds. The officials directly bypassed the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contract terms, transferring an allocated $2.8 million to an unapproved joint venture (ERMC/Anot/Slate JV), resulting in hundreds of millions of rupees lost in a single transaction.24

In earlier foundational cases, such as the Lauda Air scandal, the leasing of aircraft without formal bidding caused immense losses to the national flag carrier (Rs. 380 million), yet high-level leaders like Girija Prasad Koirala entirely evaded accountability.16 Similarly, the procurement of Widebody aircraft involved massive irregularities that led to the conviction of lower-tier officials like former Finance Secretary Shishir Kumar Dhungana, who was sentenced to prison and heavily fined (Rs 120 million), while the overarching political architects who approved the funding remained relatively untouched.25

These compounding scandals unequivocally demonstrate that public funds in Nepal are systematically siphoned into private hands through complex, politically protected mechanisms, stifling national development and perpetuating deep economic fragility.16

5. Socio-Economic Impacts

The economic cost of systemic corruption in Nepal extends far beyond the immediate, quantifiable financial losses detailed in high-profile scandals. At a macroeconomic level, widespread corruption, coupled with political instability, acts as a severe deterrent to both domestic capital formation and foreign direct investment.27 This fundamentally limits the state’s productive capacity, ensuring it remains trapped in a low-growth equilibrium. The illicit diversion of resources away from productive uses critically reduces the efficacy of public policies designed to alleviate poverty and construct essential national infrastructure.28

Empirical research on Nepal’s economic trajectory emphasizes that the quality of governance is directly correlated with economic output.27 Mathematical assessments confirm that approximately 92 percent of GDP growth volatility in Nepal can be explained by fluctuations in infrastructure investment, political stability, monetary freedom, and the effectiveness of anti-corruption measures.27 When the state is completely captured by rent-seeking elites, funds that should be allocated for critical development projects are absorbed by the informal economy, perpetuating a cycle of underdevelopment and socio-economic inequality.16 The Gini coefficient for Nepal, historically recorded around 30, reflects this deep structural maldistribution of wealth exacerbated by corrupt governance.7

On a microeconomic level, the lived experience of ordinary Nepali citizens interacting with the state apparatus is fundamentally defined by the necessity of navigating corruption. Due to a highly complicated bureaucracy characterized by redundant documentation, intentionally opaque procedures, and a total lack of transparency, a vast informal economy of bribery has become normalized at the grassroots level.2 Businesses and citizens rely heavily on these informal payments simply to function, fully aware that such behavior actively damages the institutional fabric. This dynamic leads to intense, simmering public discontent regarding the government’s ability to deliver services efficiently, eroding the social contract between the state and the citizen.2

The burden of the systemic corruption falls disproportionately upon the poorest, most vulnerable, and most marginalized segments of society. Corruption relating to the illegal exploitation of land, forestry, and water resources often leads directly to environmental degradation and the dispossession of indigenous territories. Because these communities lack the financial means to participate in the pervasive bribery culture to secure their rights and are historically vastly underrepresented in the civil service and political leadership, they are systematically excluded from the benefits of state resources.29 Illicit financial flows driven by corruption erode the domestic tax base and dramatically worsen inequality, increasing Nepal’s dependence on official development assistance while actively stalling vital poverty reduction initiatives.

The culmination of this massive economic despair, compounded by unabated impunity, has manifested in significant socio-political unrest and violence. When structural corruption leaves the state unable to generate employment or manage inflation, the youth demographic—comprising over 60 percent of the population, with youth unemployment exceeding a staggering 20 percent—experiences profound disenfranchisement.30 This volatile economic reality ignited the massive Gen Z-led protests that swept Kathmandu and other regions in September 2025 and continued into early 2026.

Transparency International Nepal explicitly validated this connection, stating that the immense public frustration and the Gen Z protests were directly driven by corruption, the abuse of power by political leadership, and the systematic exclusion of young people from employment, economic opportunities, and accessible public services.57 This pattern aligns with broader regional instability seen in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, proving that economic grievances born of corruption invariably translate into catastrophic political instability.

6. Conclusion

The intricate, symbiotic relationship between impunity and corruption in Nepal represents a severe, self-sustaining crisis of governance that threatens the foundational stability of the democratic state. As this analysis has demonstrated, corruption in the nation is not merely a collection of isolated transactional bribes; it is a deeply entrenched systemic condition facilitated by the continuous, deliberate subversion of the rule of law by the political elite. The historical legacy of autocratic regimes established a powerful precedent of elite exemption that has seamlessly adapted to the structures of the modern federal democratic republic.

Resilience is maintained through carefully engineered legal vulnerabilities and institutional capture. The “policy decision” loophole within the CIAA Act allows the executive branch to legally shield massive financial irregularities, such as the Lalita Niwas land grab and multi-billion rupee procurement frauds, under the guise of collective Cabinet immunity.

Simultaneously, the Bhagbanda system ensures that the very institutions explicitly designed to enforce accountability, the CIAA, the judiciary, and others, are thoroughly captured through partisan appointments. When the investigative and judicial apparatuses are populated by individuals beholden to political patrons, the resulting de facto impunity ensures that only low-level bureaucratic infractions are prosecuted. Meanwhile, monumental state-capture schemes, like the Fake Bhutanese Refugee scam, are perpetually plagued by delays, selective prosecution, and blatant executive interference.

The macroeconomic and social costs of this impunity are catastrophic. It diverts vital infrastructure funding, stifles foreign direct investment, and exacerbates inequality, disproportionately harming marginalized Indigenous and Dalit communities whose resources are relentlessly exploited. The absolute normalization of bribery in essential public service delivery alienates the citizenry and fundamentally undermines the legitimacy of the state. As empirical metrics from Transparency International consistently indicate, the state’s total failure to improve its corruption indices directly validates the immense economic despair that drives explosive public unrest, including the violent Gen Z protests that rocked the nation in late 2025 and early 2026.

Dismantling this deeply rooted culture requires interventions that target the structural enablers of impunity. To alter the current trajectory, the political consensus that protects high-level offenders must be dismantled by ensuring the absolute independence of the judiciary and anti-corruption commissions, completely free from the quota-sharing mechanisms of political parties. Legal loopholes, particularly the broad exemptions for Cabinet policy decisions, must be aggressively restricted through clear, limiting legislation. Any attempts by the legislature to introduce statutes of limitation for grand corruption must be permanently abandoned.

Without the full, impartial enforcement of the law, equal accountability for the topmost political leadership, and the robust protection of civil society oversight, the nexus of impunity and corruption will continue to cripple Nepal’s trajectory toward sustainable economic development and democratic integrity.


Works cited

  1. Waiting for Justice: Unpunished Crimes from Nepal’s Armed Conflict: III. History of Impunity – Human Rights Watch, https://www.hrw.org/reports/2008/nepal0908/4.htm
  2. View of Lived Experiences of Corruption in Public Service Delivery: A Phenomenological Study in Butwal, Nepal, accessed March 25, 2026, https://www.nepjol.info/index.php/jis/article/view/88420/67140
  3. Corruption and Anti-Corruption in Nepal—NASC Document, https://dms.nasc.org.np/sites/default/files/documents/Corruption%20and%20Anti-Corruption%20in%20Nepal%20Lessons.pdf
  4. The Level of Corruption in Democratic Republic of Nepal: An In-depth Analysis of Root Causes, Governance Impact, and Potential Solutions, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/381717369_The_Level_of_Corruption_in_Democratic_Republic_of_Nepal_An_In-depth_Analysis_of_Root_Causes_Governance_Impact_and_Potential_Solutions
  5. MySansar, https://www.mysansar.com/archives/2007/10/2018/
  6. Nepal: Ensure Credible Transitional Justice Appointments—Human Rights Watch, https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/05/12/nepal-ensure-credible-transitional-justice-appointments
  7. Nepal Country Report 2024 – BTI Transformation Index, https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/NPL
  8. CIAA calls out ‘corruption in guise of policy decision’ – The Kathmandu Post, https://kathmandupost.com/national/2023/12/21/ciaa-calls-out-corruption-in-guise-of-policy-decision
  9. Why can’t CIAA probe Cabinet decisions, asks apex court – The Himalayan Times, https://thehimalayantimes.com/nepal/why-cant-ciaa-probe-cabinet-decisions-asks-apex-court
  10. Bill aims to bring Cabinet decisions under CIAA’s watch – The Kathmandu Post, https://kathmandupost.com/national/2024/12/19/bill-aims-to-bring-cabinet-decisions-under-ciaa-s-watch
  11. Anti-corruption and CIAA Bills: Five Years together, now divided – Onlinekhabar English, https://english.onlinekhabar.com/anti-corruption-and-ciaa-bills-five-years-together-now-divided.html
  12. Authority without accountability: The struggle for justice in Nepal, https://www.icj.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/ICJ-AUTHORITY-WITHOUT-ACCOUNTABILITY-final-1.pdf
  13. A proposal for a law that would limit corruption to only five years, Kantipur, https://ekantipur.com/en/news/2024/08/12/a-proposal-for-a-law-that-would-limit-corruption-to-only-five-years-08-50.html
  14. House committee agrees to remove 5-year statute of limitations from corruption-related bill, accessed March 25, 2026, https://en.setopati.com/political/163599
  15. Nepal – Transparency.org https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/nepal
  16. HISTORICAL ROOTS OF IMPUNITY AND CORRUPTION 95 A peer-reviewed open-access journal indexed in NepJol ISSN 2990-7640 (online); I https://nepjol.info/index.php/mef/article/download/73940/56607/214769
  17. For Stronger CIAA – The Rising Nepal, https://risingnepaldaily.com/news/75577
  18. Politicization of Nepal’s judiciary is entrenched | The Annapurna Express, https://theannapurnaexpress.com/story/49209/
  19. Supreme Court to implement Karki panel’s report on judicial reform – The Kathmandu Post, https://kathmandupost.com/national/2024/10/24/supreme-court-to-implement-karki-panel-s-report-on-judicial-reform
  20. Bhutanese refugees scam – Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhutanese_refugees_scam
  21. Lalita Niwas scam probe: People have every right to know uncensored truth, https://theannapurnaexpress.com/story/45523/
  22. Three cases related to Lalita Niwas land scam scheduled for hearing today, https://english.ratopati.com/story/38548
  23. Lalita Niwas to Lichibagan: Always a curve on government land – Kantipur, https://ekantipur.com/koseli/2025/10/11/en/lalita-niwas-to-lichibagan-always-a-curve-on-government-land-53-16.html
  24. Third graft case filed over China-funded Pokhara airport, 21 charged – Asia News Network, https://asianews.network/third-graft-case-filed-over-china-funded-pokhara-airport-21-charged/
  25. Shishir Dhungana’s appointment as auditor general was also halted due to CIAA’s letter, https://en.setopati.com/political/165314
  26. Karki commission’s recommendations on the Gen Z protests, explained in 10 points, https://kathmandupost.com/national/2026/03/25/karki-commission-s-recommendations-on-the-gen-z-protests-explained-in-10-points
  27. Effect of Quality of Government, Political Condition, and Public Spending on Economic Growth of Nepal | Journal of Business and Management Review, https://profesionalmudacendekia.com/index.php/jbmr/article/view/1471
  28. The Impact of Governance, Corruption Control, and Political Stability on Economic Growth in Nepal: An Econometric Analysis, https://nepjol.info/index.php/JPS/article/view/75773/58118
  29. Impact of corruption on indigenous people, https://knowledgehub.transparencycdn.org/helpdesk/245_Impact_of_corruption_on_indigenous_people.pdf
  30. The economic roots of Nepal’s uprising—and what it means for region, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-economic-roots-of-nepals-uprising-and-what-it-means-for-the-region/

Site Update

Site Update #6: Servers Changed, Jetpack Removed

Last year…

Stories of Sandeept got an upgrade as we shifted from the “wordpress.com” domain to the “.com” domain. (See: Site Update#1: A New Phase for Stories of Sandeept.) We also hosted the website on Babal.Host and brought other changes, all of which are documented on our Site Update page.

Site Update Archive

Babal.Host new servers
WordPress Pro by Babal Host

This year…

Our host, Babal.Host shifted their StableHost servers from Singapore to our home country, Nepal. Our website has become completely local.

What does this change in servers mean?

As stated before, we are now completely based in Nepal. Some native WordPress features, like caching, have also changed, making the website faster, and solving server-related backend errors has become easier.

One jarring change was the backend error connecting to the Jetpack plugin. Since it comes natively with the wordpress.com domain, it helps manage subscribers, newsletters, blocking spams, and so on. When we upgraded last year, we decided to keep it. However, this year’s change at the server level compelled us to think about it.

Jetpack is actually a heavy plugin with many premium features that were unaffordable to us. We had been using the plugin only for checking statistics, managing subscribers, and sending newsletters updating the latest posts.

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An infographic of a Data Centre

Is a volatile Nepal ready for AI data centres in 2026?

The exponential proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI), complex machine learning architecture, and pervasive cloud computing are accelerating the global digital economy. At the heart of this digital metamorphosis are data centres. These resource-intensive facilities have evolved rapidly from passive repositories into aggressive computational engines for sustaining the modern global economy. From a market valued at approximately USD 386 billion in 2025, the industry is projected to exceed USD 1.1 trillion by 2035. Nearly 100 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity is expected to come online between 2026 and 2030 alone, doubling global capacity.

The speed of this expansion is, however, bringing up a systemic global resource crisis. The unprecedented increase in demands for electricity, water, and land to train and operate advanced generative models has already strained national power grids, compromised corporate environmental sustainability commitments, and incited socio-political backlash in established digital hubs, including those in the (US).

Consequently, global technology conglomerates and major hyperscale operators, viz. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google, are actively scouting for alternative locations that can offer abundant renewable energy, a favourable climate for natural cooling, fewer jurisdictions, and cost-effective industrial operational environments. In this context, Nepal has emerged as a potential candidate for a “green data hub”. The eleventh point of the Policies and Programmes for the FY 2026/2027 (2083/84) also reflects the aspiration of developing green computing and high-capacity data centres.

Nepal’s prospect is challenged by a volatile political environment, fluctuating hydropower, and intense geopolitical rivalries between India, China, and the US. Therefore, the persisting question is: “Is Nepal ready?” This article examines the global prospect of AI data centres and the applicability of their extension to Nepal.

1. Macroeconomics of the Data Centre Market

1.1 Market Size and Growth Trajectory

The global data centre market stood at approximately USD 386 billion in 2025 and is on a steep upward trajectory. The market is expected to exceed USD 1.1 trillion by 2034–2035, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11–12%. The data centre solutions segment, encompassing hardware and software, is even more dynamic, projected to grow from USD 449 billion in 2024 to USD 1.1 trillion by 2030 at a CAGR of nearly 20%.

Data Centre Market Size 2025 to 2035 (USD Billion)

Physical capacity growth is equally dramatic. Global data centre capacity grew fivefold between 2005 and 2025 to reach 114 GW. The sector is projected to increase by a further 97 GW between 2025 and 2030 — effectively doubling again in five years — potentially reaching 200 GW by 2030. This rapid growth is expected to require up to USD 3 trillion in investment by 2030.

1.2 Demand Drivers

AI and Machine Learning

AI represented around 25% of all data centre workloads in 2025. By 2030, this is expected to reach 50%. According to McKinsey, generative AI alone could account for roughly 40% of data centre demand in 2030. The major hyperscalers have announced combined long-term commitments exceeding USD 500 billion in this sector.

Cloud Computing & Digital Transformation

Cloud computing remains the foundational driver of data centre growth. The number of large hyperscale data centres reached 1,136 by end-2024, roughly double the total five years earlier. Record leasing activity in early 2025 was fuelled by hyperscalers and cloud service providers. The shift to distributed cloud architectures and hybrid cloud models continues to expand the market.

Edge Computing

Edge computing, i.e., placing compute closer to data sources, is driving a new category of smaller, distributed facilities. The edge data centre market is projected to grow from USD 15.4 billion in 2024 to USD 39.8 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 17.1%, fuelled by 5G deployments and Internet of Things (IoT) adoption.

1.3 Energy: The Major Constraint

Unlike traditional cloud computing paradigms, which rely primarily on central processing units (CPUs) handling sequential, transactional workloads, AI model training and real-time inference require massive, interconnected clusters of graphics processing units (GPUs) and specialized tensor processing units (TPUs) operating in highly synchronous parallel configurations. This architectural change has drastically increased the power consumption of server racks. traditional enterprise data centre racks consumed between 5 to 10 kilowatts (kW) of continuous power. In stark contrast, modern AI-optimized racks regularly exceed 40 kW and are rapidly pushing toward 100 kW per rack.

Share of electricity consumption by data centre and equipment type in 2024
Data Centre Electricity Consumption in 2024. Source: IEA

New engineering paradigms have emerged to address the issues. The market has witnessed a rapid development and deployment of liquid immersion cooling technologies, phase-change materials, and advanced thermal management systems to resolve the extreme thermal exhaust generated by these high-density computational workloads. Leading tech companies are utilizing AI to optimize their hardware efficiencies. For instance, Google reported that between May 2024 and May 2025, it successfully reduced the median energy consumption per Gemini prompt by a factor of 33, and the associated carbon footprint by a factor of 44. These impressive gains were driven by more efficient model architectures, accurate quantized training algorithms, and optimized idling protocols.

However, these per-unit efficiency gains are being overwhelmed by the sheer volume of global compute demand. This dynamic is a textbook illustration of the Jevons Paradox: an economic principle wherein an increase in the efficiency with which a resource is used tends to lower the operational cost, which in turn exponentially stimulates an increase in the total rate of consumption of that resource. As AI becomes cheaper and faster to run on a per-query basis, its integration into every facet of the global economy deepens, driving aggregate power demands to unprecedented levels.

Data centres already consume approximately 2% of global electricity (410 TWh in 2024), with U.S. consumption alone reaching about 190 TWh. The IEA projects that the global consumption could double to 945 TWh globally by 2030.

Data Centre Electricity Consumption by Region. Source: IEA

Fossil Fuel Consumption

The AI boom is inadvertently prolonging the lifecycle of fossil fuels. The IEA notes that though renewable energy is expanding at an annual average rate of 22% and supplying about 27% of current consumption, coal (~30%) and natural gas (~26%) still dominate. Nuclear power accounts for 15%. The IEA forecasts that natural gas and coal will still be required to satisfy over 40% of the additional electricity demand through 2030.

Metric2025 Value2030 ProjectionCAGR
Global Market Size~USD 386 billion~USD 700+ billion~11–12%
Global Capacity~114 GW~200 GW~12–14%
Global Electricity Demand410 TWh (Approx. 2024 baseline)945 TWh (nearly 3% of global demand)N/A
Global Fuel DemandCoal: 30;
Renewables: 27%;
Gas: 26%;
Nuclear: 15%
Coal and Gas to meet >40% of new demandN/A
Hyperscale Facilities~1,136 large facilitiesSignifica8nt increaseN/A
Server Rack DensityTraditional Cloud: 5-10 kW per rackAI Training: 40 kW to 100+ kW per rackN/A
AI Share of Workloads~25%~50%Rapid growth
Average Construction CostUSD 10.7M/MWUSD 11.3M+/MW~6%/yr
Summary of Data Centre Stats. Source: Various

1.4 Regional Landscape

The distribution of the data centre economy reflects a huge disparity. In 2025, North America occupied the largest market share (40%) whereas the Middle East and Africa have less than a 2% share.

Region2025 Market ShareKey MarketsGrowth Outlook & CAGR to 2030
North America~40–41%Northern Virginia, Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas17% CAGR; lowest vacancy (2.3%); fastest growth
Asia-PacificSecond largestChina, India, Japan, Southeast Asia, Australia12–23% CAGR; fastest-growing; 32–57 GW capacity
Europe~25%London, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Paris, Dublin10% CAGR; power & permitting constraints
Latin AmericaEmergingSantiago, Querétaro, São PauloGrowing; cost-effective alternatives to US
Middle East and Africa< 1–2%UAE, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Nigeria15–16% CAGR; rapid growth from low base

1.5 Investment and FDI

Data centres have become one of the most attractive asset classes for global investment. Greenfield investment in the sector rose by approximately USD 125 billion in 2025, while international project finance increased by USD 30 billion. This surge helped push global FDI up 14% in 2025 to an estimated USD 1.6 trillion.

However, this investment is highly concentrated in France, the US, and the Republic of Korea. Emerging markets seeking to attract this capital face stiff competition and must offer compelling value propositions around power, connectivity, regulatory clarity, and total cost of operation.

2. Socio-Political Backlash and Market Reallocation

The voracious resource appetite of these facilities has sparked severe socio-political backlash in established markets. In the United States, an estimated $156 billion worth of data centre projects were officially blocked, severely delayed, or cancelled in 2025 alone due to a confluence of grid capacity constraints and environmental litigation.

Communities are increasingly mobilizing against the daily emissions of massive diesel backup generators. Furthermore, agricultural and municipal water conflicts are escalating. A single Meta facility in Georgia, for instance, utilizes approximately 500,000 gallons of water daily for its evaporative cooling arrays, directly competing with local farming requirements during drought conditions.

In response to such frictions and the broader threat of utility grid oversupply, hyperscalers are exhibiting strategic hesitation. Investment analysts from TD Cowen reported in early 2026 that Microsoft had terminated select leases with at least two private data centre operators across multiple US markets, cancelling hundreds of megawatts of capacity due to severe power delivery delays. The firm likened this to Meta’s previous withdrawal from data centre leases during the scaling down of its metaverse initiatives. Furthermore, Microsoft has paused Statements of Qualifications (SOQs) for multiple domestic sites, leading to market speculation regarding temporary AI compute overcapacity, or alternatively, a strategic reallocation of capital expenditures toward international markets with fewer regulatory frictions.

3. Geopolitics and Weaponization of Cloud Computing

Data centres are critical national security infrastructure. Weaponization of cloud computing and strategic competition between the US and China have defined the geopolitics in recent years. The US has imposed restrictions on the sale and transfer of advanced semiconductors (most notably Nvidia‘s cutting-edge architectures) to Chinese entities. The rationale is to strategically throttle China’s advances in AI-driven military logistics, autonomous weapons systems, and domestic surveillance apparatuses.

Despite restrictions, the Chinese state entities, research institutions, and tech giants are renting raw computing power from hyperscale data centres located in third-party countries. For example, in late 2025, investigations revealed that INF Tech, a Shanghai-based start-up, had been remotely accessing approximately 2,300 restricted, leading-edge Blackwell chips housed in an Indonesian data centre to train complex AI systems for scientific applications. Similarly, Chinese tech giants Alibaba and ByteDance have leveraged Nvidia clusters housed in Southeast Asian facilities to train their latest large language models. In another significant manoeuvre, China’s Tencent executed a $1.2 billion agreement with a Japanese cloud provider to secure remote access to 15,000 advanced B200 chips.

This regulatory loophole is forcing US policymakers to fundamentally reassess their strategy. To maintain the efficacy of hardware embargoes, the US will inevitably have to implement and enforce complex export restrictions on cloud computing services themselves. This means Washington will dictate not just who can purchase chips but also who can remotely log into servers globally, effectively weaponizing access to digital infrastructure.

Geotechnology disputes, thus, are new realities in international relations and diplomacy. Cross-border data flows, which were the unquestioned bedrock of the early internet, now face strict national oversight under the evolving doctrine of “digital sovereignty”. Governments fear that allowing sensitive citizen or government data to be processed on foreign soil exposes them to extraterritorial surveillance, economic espionage, or sudden geopolitical leverage.

This dynamic is fuelling intense competition for influence across the Global South. Both China and India view themselves as the natural leaders of this bloc. While India has facilitated strategic diplomatic manoeuvres, such as enabling the African Union’s entry into the G20, and aims to attract USD 200 billion in data centre investments to position itself as a trusted, development-focused AI partner for the developing world. The signing of the MOU between Nepal’s Kathmandu University and India’s BHASINI on June 6, 2026, for the development of artificial intelligence, digital public infrastructure, and natural language processing (NLP) in the presence of the foreign ministers of both countries is a significant geopolitical move.

China still has a massive financial superiority over India. Its outward direct investment (ODI) in 2023 amounted to nearly $180 billion, dwarfing India’s $110 billion. Beijing utilizes this capital to integrate nations into its technological sphere; for instance, Pakistan operates within the China Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and hosts special economic zones designed explicitly to attract relocated Chinese technological firms under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In this fiercely contested environment, any nation offering to host neutral data infrastructure becomes an immediate focal point for superpower proxy competition.

4. Nepal’s Position

4.1 Current State of Data Centre and IT Services

Nepal’s data centre industry is nascent but growing. The first government-owned facility, the Government Integrated Data Centre (GIDC), was set up in 2009. The country’s first commercial data centre was established by Access World Tech Pvt. Ltd. in 2013. Most facilities are clustered around Kathmandu.

As of 2025–2026, Nepal has its first data centre company, Ncell. It’s Nakkhu Data Centre has been recently certified Tier 3. The first Tier 3 certified and purpose-built data centre, however, is Data World (a subsidiary of WorldLink Communications). It has 14 strategically located facilities across the country. A new development milestone arrived in May 2026 when Bichuten announced plans to build Tier 4 Hyperscale Data Centres in Chobhar, Kathmandu and Birgunj. These two will have a combined capacity of 5 MW, with all power sourced from Nepalese hydroelectric sources.

The IT service sector is growing as well. Given Nepal’s challenging topography and landlocked status, it is exceedingly difficult for physical Nepalese manufactured goods to compete with the industrial-scale output of neighbouring India and China. However, the “weightless” and borderless nature of IT service exports presents a distinct comparative advantage.
Current trends indicate significant latent potential. By 2022, Nepal exported IT services worth an estimated Rs 67 billion, and the sector is now generating over $1 billion annually. These IT service exports contribute approximately 1.4% to the country’s GDP and bolster foreign currency reserves by 5.5%.

4.2 Political Vision

The government has established highly ambitious targets to exponentially accelerate this growth. Policymakers aim to increase IT service export earnings from the current $1 billion to an astounding $30 billion by 2030, alongside the creation of 500,000 specialized domestic jobs to absorb a young national workforce projected to reach 22 million by the end of the decade.

To facilitate this transition, the government has drafted the Digital Nepal Framework (DNF) 2.0 in 2025. Expanding upon the original 2019 DNF 1.0, which sought to digitize eight key sectors through 80 distinct initiatives, the draft DNF 2.0 identifies data hosting and cloud infrastructure readiness as critical dependencies for national socioeconomic transformation. The framework explicitly prioritizes the establishment of energy-efficient, green data centres that align with international benchmarks like LEED and Uptime Institute standards. The framework also encompasses broad digitalization efforts, including a National Biometric ID system (with 17 million citizens already registered), eHaat Bazaar platforms for precision agriculture, and the widespread implementation of Digital Signatures. The Policies and Programmes for FY 2083-84 (2026-27) also reflect these aspirations.

Market projections reflect optimism regarding these policy shifts. The Nepal Data Center Market is forecast to grow from an estimated $171.86 million in infrastructure value in 2024 to $530.52 million by 2035, representing a CAGR of 10.00%. The broader data centre services market is expected to reach $407.15 million by 2035 at a 10.44% CAGR. Domestic players are already scaling up. For instance, WorldLink Communications has attracted significant FDI from the British International Investment (BII) and the Dolma Impact Fund to expand its enterprise solutions and subsidiary Data World Limited.

Nepal MarketCurrent / BaselineFuture Target (2030/2035)
IT Service Exports~$1.0 Billion (2024) $30.0 Billion (Target 2030)
IT Sector Job CreationCurrent informal dominance (82%) +500,000 specialized jobs (Target 2030)
Data Center Infrastructure Market$171.86 Million (2024) $530.52 Million (Forecast 2035)
Data Center Total Market SizeN/A (Emerging)$407.15 Million (Forecast 2035)
Summary Stats for Nepal’s IT and Data Centre Market

4.3 The Case FOR Nepal as a Data Centre Hub

Abundant Clean & Affordable Hydroelectric Power

Nepal’s most compelling competitive advantage is its extraordinary hydropower endowment. The country has an estimated hydropower potential of approximately 83,000 MW, of which around 43,000 MW is considered technically and economically feasible. As of April 2026, 4,340 MW has been harnessed, meaning the vast majority of this resource remains untapped.

Nepal has already become the first country in South Asia to sell surplus electricity on the Indian Energy Exchange market. By the 2025–2026 fiscal year, Nepal is projected to have a maximum surplus of 2,456 MW available for export. Crucially, almost all of the country’s electricity comes from hydropower, a renewable source that is increasingly prioritised by data centre operators seeking to meet net-zero commitments.

Energy costs represent the single largest operating expense for data centres, typically comprising 30–40% of total costs. Clean, affordable power directly addresses the dominant constraint facing the global industry today.

Natural Cooling Advantage

Nepal’s Himalayan geography offers significant natural cooling. Data centres generate enormous heat and require sophisticated (and energy-intensive) cooling systems. Nepal’s cool mountain climate, particularly at higher altitudes, could reduce power consumption for cooling, improving Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) ratios. Some existing Nepalese facilities already report PUE figures below 1.4, competitive with global benchmarks. Combined with abundant cold river water for water-side cooling, Nepal’s natural environment could substantially lower the total cost of data centre operation.

Strategic Location Between Two Giant Economies

Nepal is landlocked between India and China, two of the world’s largest and fastest-growing data economies. India’s data centre market is projected to reach over 4 GW capacity by 2030, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23%. Asia-Pacific as a whole is the fastest-growing data centre region globally, with a projected 12–23% CAGR. Nepal’s geographic position could, if adequately connected, offer low-latency reach to both markets and serve as a neutral hub for regional data processing and storage.

By positioning itself as a sovereign, green data conduit, Nepal can cleverly leverage its strategic geography to attract competing streams of infrastructure financing. The United States, viewing secure digital infrastructure as a core component of its broader Indo-Pacific Strategy, is already heavily involved in modernizing the nation’s energy sector. The $500 million Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Nepal Compact is explicitly designed to increase the availability of electricity by financing critical high-voltage cross-border transmission lines, such as the Nijgadh–Motihari 400 kV link.

Green Brand Positioning

The global data centre industry is under mounting pressure to decarbonize. Hyperscalers are competing to secure renewable energy at scale, and renewable energy credentials are increasingly a prerequisite for major contracts. Nepal, where virtually 100% of electricity comes from hydropower, is in a unique position to offer one of the world’s greenest data centre environments. This green positioning could be a decisive differentiator when competing for environmentally conscious US operators subject to investor ESG (Environment, Social, and Governance) scrutiny.

Emerging Policy Momentum and Low Land Costs

The almost two-thirds majority government provides a political window to establish clear policy frameworks and incentive structures for foreign data centre investment. Land costs in Nepal remain a fraction of those in established markets. In primary U.S. markets, average monthly asking rates now exceed USD 200 per kW, which Nepal could substantially undercut. The combination of low land prices, cheap power, and natural cooling could offer a compelling total cost of ownership for certain workloads.

FDI Diversification and Economic Development

Nepal is heavily reliant on remittances (accounting for roughly 25–27% of GDP) and tourism. Data centre investment would bring in substantial FDI, creating skilled employment, building technical capacity, and generating long-term recurring revenue from power sales and services. Each direct data centre job is estimated to create 7.4 ancillary jobs in the broader economy. Investment in data centres would also accelerate Nepal’s own digital transformation, expanding access to cloud services, e-commerce, and digital public services.

4.4 The Case AGAINST

Seismic Vulnerability

Nepal sits on one of the world’s most seismically active zones. The 2015 Gorkha earthquake (7.8 Mw) caused catastrophic infrastructure damage and is a stark reminder of the country’s exposure. In September 2024, flooding and landslides affected 20 hydropower plants and reduced electricity production by at least 1.1 GW. For data centre operators, particularly hyperscalers housing mission-critical workloads, seismic risk is a serious deterrent.

Connectivity Bottlenecks

Nepal is landlocked and entirely dependent on its neighbours for international internet connectivity. The country’s internet bandwidth flows through India and China, both of which have been known to restrict cross-border data flows for geopolitical reasons. This creates a single point of failure for any data centre claiming to offer reliable global connectivity. Latency to key U.S. or European markets is high compared to established hubs in Singapore, the UAE, or even India.

For U.S.-based companies considering Nepal for data hosting, the connectivity question is near-disqualifying for latency-sensitive workloads. It may be less of an issue for cold storage, backup, archival, or batch AI training workloads, but these are lower-value use cases that generate less revenue.

Absence of Regulatory Framework

As of June 2026, Nepal has no comprehensive legal or regulatory framework governing data centres and their environmental impact, foreign data hosting, or data sovereignty. Local residents adjacent to existing, smaller-scale data centres in the Kathmandu Valley (such as the Ncell facility in Nakkhu) already report severe noise and vibration pollution, a continuous, low-frequency humming from cooling arrays that causes nearby houses to vibrate and disrupts sleep patterns. When grid failures occur, these facilities activate massive diesel generators, which residents report emit toxic black smoke daily.

For U.S. companies subject to U.S. data governance requirements (including potential export control regulations, data localisation rules under contracts with U.S. federal agencies, and GDPR-equivalent obligations for European user data), the absence of a clear Nepalese data centre regulatory framework is a significant obstacle. There is no equivalent of Singapore’s Model Data Centre framework, Ireland’s data centre planning guidance, or India’s new Digital Personal Data Protection Act to provide investment certainty.

Infrastructure and Skills Gap

Nepal’s existing data centre infrastructure is small-scale and domestically focused. The country has no experience connecting hydropower directly to a hyperscale data centre. Transmission infrastructure, substations, and grid stability are not yet calibrated for the power demands of large facilities. The skilled technical workforce required to operate and maintain hyperscale data centres, viz., electrical engineers, cooling specialists, network engineers, data centre technicians, etc., is scarce.

Building this workforce requires significant investment in training and potentially substantial salary premiums to attract talent.

Seasonal Power Variability

Nepal’s hydropower output is significantly seasonal. During the monsoon season (June–September), rivers run high and power is abundant, sometimes exceeding domestic and export demand. Although the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) projects that the nation will technically stop electricity imports during the dry season by 2026 and possess a maximum surplus of 2456 MW, independent analysts warn that the underlying supply remains highly fragile. During winter dry seasons, however, river flows drop sharply, and Nepal has historically imported electricity from India.

This seasonal mismatch, which is one of the factors challenging Nepal’s EV revolution, is a material risk for data centre operators who require 99.9%+ uptime, year-round, without fluctuation. This scenario also negates the “green compute” value proposition that initially attracts them. The prime minister’s assertion in parliament that increasing household consumption will result in power cuts is a clear deterrent for large-scale data centre operation. Addressing this requires significant investment in storage-type hydropower plants, battery storage, or guaranteed backup arrangements, none of which are currently in place at scale.

Geopolitical and Policy Instability

Nepal’s political history is marked by frequent government changes — the country has had over a dozen governments in the past two decades. Political protests and riots are also common. As such, policy continuity for long-horizon infrastructure investments (data centres have 15- to 25-year asset lives) is a legitimate concern. The government’s vision is compelling, but it depends on sustained political will across multiple electoral cycles.

Additionally, Nepal’s position between India and China creates complex geopolitical dynamics. India has imposed restrictions on the export of power from projects with Chinese involvement.

On the other hand, the dynamics in US-China relations could give rise to intense geopolitical rivalry. If US operators establish advanced computing facilities in Nepal, these servers become highly prized strategic assets for China. Because Nepal is physically linked to China via the 4 Gbps Rasuwagadhi optical fibre route, Beijing could easily lease computational bandwidth from US facilities based in Kathmandu. Moreover, any data centre that attracts Chinese investment or uses Chinese hardware could face complications with U.S. customers who are subject to U.S. national security review processes (such as CFIUS reviews or restrictions under the CHIPS Act framework).

This places Kathmandu in an impossible diplomatic position. Refusing the US could risk American sanctions, the immediate withdrawal of hyperscale FDI, and the freezing of MCC infrastructure funds. Conversely, accommodating US demands and severing Chinese data access would enrage Beijing, likely triggering economic coercion, border trade blockades, or a halt to Chinese infrastructure investments under the Belt and Road Initiative. This proxy conflict is already visible. During the recent visit of US Assistant Secretary of State Samir Paul Kapur to Kathmandu in April 2026, Chinese diplomat Cao Jing held near-parallel meetings, explicitly warning Nepal against the ramifications of the MCC Compact and urging the rejection of US satellite networks like Starlink.

Compounding this geopolitical friction is Nepal’s own chaotic approach to data sovereignty. The newly implemented Data Centre and Cloud Service Directives, 2025, mandate strict data localization, requiring all foreign operators to enlist with the local Department of Information Technology and mandating that domestic financial payment systems host their data strictly with these enlisted entities. Additionally, the Nepalese government has expressed intent to restrict the transmission of “sensitive data” outside its borders to enforce social media censorship and ensure local tax compliance. These heavy-handed, government-mandated backdoors and stringent localization prerequisites are highly unappealing to Western hyperscalers, who demand jurisdictional autonomy to protect global user privacy and shield their proprietary models from state interference.

No Proof of Concept Yet

Perhaps the most fundamental challenge is the absence of a demonstrated track record. There is no operational hyperscale or even mid-scale foreign-owned data centre in Nepal. There is no evidence that the economic case of cheap hydropower + natural cooling offsetting seismic construction premiums + connectivity costs actually works in practice. Without a pilot facility that validates the business model, risk-averse institutional capital will remain on the sidelines. This creates a classic chicken-and-egg problem: no investment without evidence, no evidence without investment.

4.5 Comparative Scorecard

FactorNepal’s PositionVerdict
Renewable Energy~83,000 MW potential; nearly 100% hydro gridStrong Advantage
Energy CostLow; competitive with regional peersAdvantage
Natural CoolingHimalayan climate; cool temperaturesAdvantage
Policy FormulationNew policies with focus on data centre and green computingPromising
Skilled WorkforceLimited; significant gap vs. global benchmarksWeakness
Regulatory FrameworkData centres absent from EIA and other regulationsCritical Gap
Seismic RiskHigh; among most active zones globallyMajor Challenge
Geopolitical EntanglementComplex; India-China Dynamics;
US cloud export controls conflicting with Chinese terrestrial fibre access.
Risk Factor
ConnectivityLandlocked geography; absolute physical reliance on Indian/Chinese fibre.Significant Weakness

4.6 Strategic Recommendations for Nepal

1. Establish a legal and regulatory framework. Draft and pass a Data Centre Act that addresses building standards for seismic zones; environmental impact requirements; data sovereignty and cross-border transfer rules; and a licensing regime for foreign operators. Draw on Singapore, Ireland, and India as models.

2. Build a proof-of-concept facility. Partner with a development finance institution (such as the IFC or ADB) and a credible technology operator to construct and operate a single mid-scale (5–10 MW) internationally certified data centre powered directly by a dedicated hydropower source. Document the full economics.

3. Invest in hydropower generation, transmission and grid stability. The connection between hydropower generation and data centre campuses requires dedicated and reliable transmission infrastructure and backup systems to address seasonal variability. This is a prerequisite, not an afterthought.

4. Resolve connectivity dependency. Work with India and Bangladesh, and potentially directly with submarine cable landing stations via Bangladesh, to diversify and secure international bandwidth. Explore partnerships with regional internet exchange points.

5. Develop the workforce pipeline. Partner with Tribhuvan University and technical institutes to create data centre operations and engineering curricula. Establish apprenticeship agreements with international operators.

6. Target appropriate workload types first. Rather than competing head-on with Singapore or the UAE for latency-sensitive workloads, focus initially on cold storage, AI training (batch, not real-time inference), backup and archival, and sustainability-driven offloading from carbon-heavy facilities.

7. Create a stable investment environment. Offer political stability and security against riots; long-term tax certainty (10+ year agreements); land lease guarantees; and repatriation of profits provisions that survive changes in government. Consider a special economic zone model for data centre campuses.

5. Conclusion

Nepal’s proposition as a data centre hub is genuinely compelling in theory. The combination of vast untapped clean energy, natural cooling, and low land costs addresses the most acute constraint facing the global industry today: power. The political will is present. The timing as the world scrambles for green computing capacity is, in principle, favourable.

However, the structural challenges are substantial and largely unaddressed. Seismic risk, connectivity dependence, regulatory vacuum, workforce gaps, and seasonal power variability are deal-breakers for hyperscalers operating at the frontier of global digital infrastructure, where uptime and data sovereignty are non-negotiable.

Nepal’s most realistic near-term path is to build credible proof with one well-documented, internationally certified, hydropower-connected facility and let the economics speak. If the math works, the investment will follow. If it does not, Nepal will have learned a critical lesson before committing national resources at scale.

The opportunity is real. The hard work of converting ambition into investable reality has barely begun.

Life of Pi book cover

Life of Pi: A Short Review

Spoilers ahead!

Introduction

It is possible to summarize the main story of Life of Pi (2001) as “A boy, a tiger, a boat in the middle of the Pacific” (also shown on the cover and in the movie). However, it would be injustice to reduce the novel to just this visual. The novel in its core is philosophical as well as traumatic, with Martel’s genius metafictional storytelling that frequently blurs the line between fact and fiction.

Life of Pi book cover

Blurring of fact and fiction in Life of Pi

The overlap between fact and fiction begins with the prologue written in the form of an Author’s Note (written in italics). Here we meet the Author who is struggling in his career and is writing a novel on Portugal (which Martel eventually did) in Pondicherry, India. He meets Francis Adirubasamy, who tells about Piscine “Pi” Patel and claims that Pi’s story will make him believe in God.

Pi’s two stories

Next, we hear from Pi about his growing up in India with interludes from the Author (written in italics). We hear about Pi’s interest in zoology and theology, his simultaneous adoption of Hindu, Catholic, and Islamic faiths and religious practices, and the most harrowing of all, his 227-day ordeal in the Pacific after the sinking of the Japanese cargo ship, the Tsimsum. He tells the story of how he was stranded in a lifeboat with a zebra, a hyena, an orangutan, and the tiger, Richard Parker.

Towards the end of his story, Pi says, “…could you tell my jumbled story in exactly one hundred chapters, not one more, not one less?” Leaving out the prologue, the Author does exactly that, sometimes cleverly using one-liners in some chapters and even two words in Chapter 97: “The story.”

The last five chapters are his conversation with the officers of the Japanese Ministry of Transport. Here, the officers make Pi tell another story without the animals because it is too incredible for the authorities. Pi then tells another story with the savage cook, the helpless sailor, his kindly mother, and himself (timid at first and gradually finding evil within him). The officers compare the cook with the hyena from the first story, the sailor with the zebra, the mother with the orangutan, and Pi with the tiger.

What I felt

The novel left me with many questions as it ended. I doubted if it fulfilled the promise that it would make one believe in God. I don’t know if it even changed my understanding of God. While Pi’s struggle in the Pacific feels traumatic and extraordinarily human, it did not change me. I felt that although Pi’s experience helped him shape his understanding of God, it also felt detached and dissociated.

Talking about detachment and dissociation, we can understand Pi’s two stories with trauma theory which Gabor Maté has described in detail in The Myth of Normal.” Maté notes that “the mind can do some amazing things” to protect a person from pain, such as “leaving the body” or splitting the mind. By projecting himself as the tiger, Pi could allow his “animal” survival instincts to take over, while his “human” self remained a “harmless vegetarian boy, bookish and religious.” This allows him to survive his own “savagery” without his spirit breaking entirely. Thus, the tiger becomes a protective mask.

Conclusion

The two stories of Pi differ in details, but the synopsis remains the same: the ship sinks, Pi loses everything, and he suffers. When he asks the Japanese officers which story is better, they choose the imaginative and fantastic story with animals instead of the “dry, yeastless” story of human savagery. Pi finds peace, and so the story “goes with God.” In summary, life of Pi is about which story he chooses to believe no matter how irrational it is.

Democracy beyong voting

Why voting alone is not democracy

Before we begin this article, let’s watch the video below.

Courtesy: 7 News, Australia

The video shows Kim Jong Un being elected as the leader of his Workers’ Party with 100% approval. It’s legitimate voting according to Kim and his sycophants. But we know it’s not democratic. We know what happens to the North Koreans who defy Kim.

On the opposite spectrum is Switzerland, where voter turnout is less than 50%. The low turnout is because of the frequency and complexity of elections. They vote for popular initiatives – petitions filed by the public; for referendums for changing the constitution and laws; and for the election of representatives at different levels.

We also have countries Uruguay and Belgium with voter turnout of over 85% and that are highly democratic.

But then there are countries like Tunisia and Haiti, whose voter turnout in the last elections (2023 and 2015, respectively) sits at 11.4% and 17.8%. These countries have been classified as having poor democratic representation.

These examples paint a complex picture. Countries with both high and low voter turnout are authoritarian. Similarly, democratic countries also have both high and low voter turnouts.

In this article, we explore one aspect: how authoritarian regimes use elections for their legitimacy and why voting alone is not democracy.

“Performing” Democracy

Modern political democracy is a system of governance in which rulers are held accountable for their actions in the public realm by citizens, acting indirectly through the competition and cooperation of their
elected representatives.

Philippe C. Schmitter and Terry Lynn Karl

A democracy, according to Robert Dahl, Philppe C. Schmitter, and Terry Lynn Karl, should have the following nine procedures:

  1. Control over government decisions about policy is constitutionally vested in elected officials.
  2. Elected officials are chosen in frequent and fairly conducted elections in which coercion is comparatively uncommon.
  3. Practically all adults have the right to vote in the election of officials.
  4. Practically all adults have the right to run for elective offices in the government.
  5. Citizens have a right to express themselves without the danger of severe punishment on political matters broadly defined.
  6. Citizens have a right to seek out alternative sources of information. Alternative sources of information exist and are protected by law.
  7. Citizens have the right to form associations or organizations, including independent political parties and interest groups.
  8. Popularly elected officials must be able to exercise their constitutional powers without being subjected to overriding (albeit informal) opposition from unelected officials.
  9. The polity must be self-governing; it must be able to act independently of constraints imposed by some other overarching political system.

Most people, however, believe that democracy refers to having regular fair elections. This fallacy, known as “procedural fallacy” or “electoralism”, rests on the erroneous faith that the mere act of holding elections will channel political conflict into peaceful contestation and confer legitimacy upon the victors, regardless of the structural conditions under which those elections occur.

Contemporary autocrats have mastered the art of “performing” democracy. They do not abolish institutions; they hollow them out. They do not ban opposition; they render it impotent. They do not cancel elections; they engineer them. They have turned democracy into illusion.

Elections, therefore, do not always equate to democracy.

Competitive Authoritarianism and Rigged Voting

Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way introduced the concept of “Competitive Authoritarianism” to describe regimes that possess the formal architecture of democracy—legislatures, judiciaries, and multiple parties—but where the playing field is so heavily skewed it cannot be considered democratic.

The incumbent often has an advantage over others in competitive authoritarianism because of the following three generations of rigging.

First-Generation (Crude Rigging)

Prevalent during the Cold War and early transition periods, this kind of involves physical ballot stuffing, violent voter suppression, and the overt falsification of tally sheets. This method is high-visibility and high-risk.

The regime of Ferdinand Marcos (1965–1986) in the Philippines provides a quintessential example of Cold War proceduralism. After declaring martial law in 1972 to “save the republic” from communist insurgency, Marcos did not abolish the constitution; he replaced it with the 1973 Constitution, creating a parliamentary framework that concentrated power in his hands.

The 1978 elections for the Batasang Pambansa (Interim National Assembly) were a masterclass in performative democracy. Marcos allowed the opposition coalition, Lakas ng Bayan (LABAN), led by the imprisoned Benigno Aquino Jr., to run in Metro Manila. However, the regime denied LABAN access to media, banned public rallies, and engaged in massive vote-buying. On election day, the result was a clean sweep for Marcos’s Kilusang Bagong Lipunan (KBL) party (21-0 in Manila). The fraud was so blatant that it triggered a “Noise Barrage” protest, yet the U.S. State Department, prioritizing the security of Subic Bay Naval Base and Clark Air Base, accepted the “official” results as a step toward “normalization”.

Marcos repeated this in the 1981 presidential election, which he “won” with 88% of the vote against a token opponent, Alejo Santos, after the legitimate opposition boycotted. Vice President George H.W. Bush’s famous toast to Marcos—“We love your adherence to democratic principles and to the democratic processes”—encapsulated the era’s procedural fallacy: the existence of the process was sufficient for validation, regardless of the principle. It was only when the “Snap Election” of 1986 exposed the regime’s crumbling control and the military defected that the U.S. withdrew support, proving that validation was contingent on the autocrat’s ability to maintain stability, not democracy.

Second-Generation (Institutional Bias)

The second-generation rigging, prevalent in the 1990s and 2000s, includes gerrymandering, the packing of electoral commissions with partisans, and the misuse of state media.

The end of the Cold War fundamentally altered the incentives for autocrats. Overt dictatorships lost international funding and legitimacy. To survive, autocrats had to adopt the full architecture of democracy. This era gave birth to Competitive Authoritarianism, where the struggle was between Western conditionality (linkage and leverage) and the incumbent’s ability to manipulate the level playing field.

Alberto Fujimori’s regime in Peru (1990–2000) serves as a critical case study of how an elected leader can use democratic mandates to destroy democracy. Faced with a hostile Congress and the Shining Path insurgency, Fujimori executed an autogolpe (self-coup) in April 1992, dissolving the legislature and judiciary with military backing.

What followed was a sophisticated use of the procedural fallacy to regain international standing. Under intense pressure from the Organization of American States (OAS), Fujimori did not embrace permanent dictatorship. Instead, he:

  1. Convened a Democratic Constituent Congress (CCD) to draft a new constitution.
  2. Held a referendum to ratify it.
  3. Organized general elections in 1995.

Fujimori won the 1995 election in a landslide (64%) against Javier Pérez de Cuéllar. International observers validated the election as procedurally “acceptable”, effectively washing away the sin of the 1992 coup. This validation ignored the underlying reality: the National Intelligence Service (SIN), led by Vladimiro Montesinos, was systematically bribing judges, media owners, and opposition figures to ensure Fujimori’s dominance. The “clean” election of 1995 masked the “dirty” institutional capture, allowing the regime to survive until the Vladivideos scandal exposed the rot in 2000. This case highlighted the danger of international observers focusing on election-day mechanics while ignoring the inter-election destruction of checks and balances.

Third-Generation (Autocratic Legalism)

Prevalent post-2010, the third-generation rigging involves “lawfare” (disqualifying candidates on technicalities), the capture of the judiciary, digital surveillance, internet shutdowns, and the deployment of “zombie observers” to dilute criticism.

The trajectory of Bangladesh under Sheikh Hasina (2009–2024) offers a stark illustration of how the procedural fallacy can eventually lead to regime collapse. Hasina employed progressively more brazen techniques to secure power:

  • 2014: The “Uncontested Election” (BNP boycott leading to 153 uncontested seats).
  • 2018: The “Midnight Election” (allegations of ballot stuffing the night before).
  • 2024: The “Dummy Candidate” Election. To avoid another uncontested poll, the Awami League ran “independent” candidates who were actually party members to create the illusion of competition.

The international reaction to the January 2024 election was polarized. The U.S. and UK declared the elections “not free or fair”. Conversely, India, China, and Russia validated the results, prioritizing strategic partnership. Hasina relied on this geopolitical shield and the veneer of the election to claim legitimacy. However, this “procedural” victory severed the regime’s connection to the populace. Lacking genuine consent, the regime crumbled in August 2024 in the face of student protests, proving that while elections can satisfy foreign allies, they cannot permanently contain domestic rage without substantive legitimacy.

The Controversy of International Legitimacy

The persistence of electoralism is sustained by specific international mechanisms that allow autocrats to shop for legitimacy.

The “Zombie Observer” Phenomenon

Autocrats have neutralized the threat of international election observation by cultivating their own monitoring groups. Regimes in Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe, invite observers from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and various “GONGOs” (Government-Organized NGOs). These missions invariably issue reports declaring the elections “transparent, free, and democratic,” often contradicting the findings of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) or EU. This creates an “epistemic fog,” allowing the autocrat to claim that criticism is merely Western bias and pointing to “international validation” from friendly blocs.

However, the West has also repeatedly established and accepted authoritarian regimes as long as they support their interests. For example, the US and UK intelligence orchestrated the Operation Ajax to overthrow Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, after he attempted to nationalize the British-controlled oil industry. In his place, they restored absolute power to the monarch, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The Shah ruled autocratically with a brutal secret police force (SAVAK) but was heavily armed and supported by the West until he was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Similarly, the West supported the military rule of General Pervez Musharraf (1999–2008) for Pakistan was the frontline state in the “War on Terror”. With this support, General Musharraf conducted a referendum to consolidate his rule in 2002.

The Foreign Aid Trap

Research by Cheeseman and Desrosiers highlights how Western aid can inadvertently strengthen electoral autocracies. By continuing “everyday engagement” and funding “capacity building” for captured institutions (like judiciaries or electoral commissions), donors validate the structures of repression.

  • The “Aid Curse”: In regimes like Rwanda and Uganda, high levels of aid reduce the government’s dependence on tax revenue, making them less accountable to their citizens.
  • Bureaucratic Inertia: Donor agencies are incentivized to move money and demonstrate “technical” success (e.g., “we trained 500 judges”), often ignoring the political reality that those judges are not independent.
  • Inconsistency: The discrepancy in how the West treats elections in strategic partners (Pakistan, Egypt) versus adversaries (Venezuela, Belarus) undermines the moral authority of democratic promotion.

Geopolitical Diversification

The rise of a multipolar world has been a boon for electoral autocrats. China and Russia offer a “no strings attached” alternative to Western validation. For regimes in Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Zimbabwe, the support of Beijing (via the Belt and Road Initiative) and Moscow provides an economic and diplomatic lifeline that renders Western conditionality ineffective. Autocrats can now “look East” for validation if the West demands too much democracy

Elections v/s Rule of Law

If elections are the engine of democracy, the Rule of Law is the chassis. Without a strong legal framework, the engine tears the vehicle apart. The World Justice Project (WJP) Rule of Law Index 2025 provides alarming evidence of a global “Rule of Law Recession” that is accelerating, undermining the very foundations of democratic governance.

The Global Rule of Law Recession

In 2025, the global rule of law continued to deteriorate, with 68% of countries, including Nepal, experiencing a decline in their scores. This represents a significant worsening from the previous year, where 57% of countries declined.

  • Top Performers: The Nordic countries (Denmark, Norway, Finland, Sweden) and New Zealand continue to set the global standard. These nations demonstrate that high rule of law is inextricably linked to high levels of social trust, low corruption, and generally high voluntary voter turnout.
  • Bottom Performers: Venezuela, Afghanistan, Cambodia, Haiti, and Nicaragua rank lowest. In these nations, the law has ceased to be a constraint on power and has become an instrument of state control.

The Collapse of Checks and Balances

The most concerning trend identified in the WJP 2025 report is the targeted erosion of constraints on government powers. The pillars that are meant to hold the executive branch accountable are crumbling.

  • Legislative Weakness: Legislative checks on executive power declined in 61% of countries. Parliaments are increasingly bypassed by executive decrees or are dominated by super-majorities that act as rubber stamps for the leader’s will.
  • Judicial Capture: The judiciary is the “last line of defense” against executive overreach, yet it is currently losing ground. Judicial independence declined in 61% of countries. When courts are captured, as seen in the 2024 judicial reforms in Mexico which introduced the popular election of judges, the capacity for legal redress vanishes.

Trust Deficit

When a citizen cannot resolve a land dispute fairly or enforce a business contract because the courts are corrupt or inefficient, their trust in the “system” evaporates. This breeds cynicism and paves the way for populist strongmen who promise “justice” through extra-legal means. The data shows a clear correlation: countries with low civil justice scores (e.g., Venezuela, Cambodia) also have the highest levels of democratic dysfunction.

Corruption v/s Democracy

Corruption is not merely a financial crime; it is a solvent that dissolves democracy. The 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) report by Transparency International paints a grim picture of the relationship between graft and governance, revealing a world where anti-corruption efforts have stagnated.

The global average CPI score remains stuck at 43/100, unchanged for over a decade. More than two-thirds of countries score below 50, indicating serious corruption problems.

  • Eastern Europe and Central Asia: This region is trapped in a “vicious cycle” where weak democratic institutions allow corruption to flourish, and the proceeds of that corruption are used to further weaken institutions.
  • Western Europe’s Slide: Even top-performing regions are backsliding. The UK (Rank 20) and other Western European nations have seen scores drop due to issues of “undue influence,” lobbying scandals, and the fraying of ethical standards in public office. This highlights that no democracy is immune to the corrosive effects of money in politics.

The Corruption-Turnout Nexus

The relationship between corruption and voter turnout is complex and context-dependent.

  • The Mobilization Effect: In functioning democracies, high perceptions of corruption can increase turnout as angry citizens mobilize to punish incumbents through voting. This was evident in the 2024 elections in South Africa and Senegal, where frustration with entrenched corruption contributed to significant political shifts and the loss of majorities for ruling parties.
  • The Apathy Effect: In contexts of systemic, endemic corruption, the effect is often the opposite. In Nigeria (CPI Score ~25), low turnout often reflects the widespread belief that the system is so rigged that voting changes nothing. When the electorate believes that all candidates are corrupt, the rational response is disengagement.
  • The Populist Bridge: High corruption perceptions often predict the rise of populist leaders. When “mainstream” parties are viewed as corrupt elites, voters turn to “anti-system” candidates who often dismantle democratic checks under the guise of “draining the swamp.” This narrative has been potent in the US, Brazil, parts of Europe, and in Nepal.

Wealth v/s Democracy

Seymour Martin Lipset’s seminal 1959 modernization theory posited that economic development creates the social conditions—literacy, a robust middle class, and civil society—necessary for democracy. The data from 2024-2025 challenges the universality of this thesis, suggesting a more fractured relationship between wealth and liberty.

The Anomaly of Wealthy Autocracies

The existence of high-income autocracies contradicts the linear Lipset trajectory. Countries like Singapore, Qatar, and the UAE possess high GDP per capita but maintain restrictive political systems.

  • The “Singapore Model”: Singapore ranks 3rd in the CPI (very clean) and has high governance effectiveness (Rank 9 in Governance Index), yet it restricts political pluralism. This represents the “technocratic authoritarian” ideal—a social contract where citizens trade political liberty for economic prosperity and administrative competence.
  • The Rentier State: The Gulf States (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE) use oil rents to buy social peace, effectively severing the link between taxation and representation. The WJP Index shows these nations with relatively high rule of law scores regarding order and security, but abysmal ratings on fundamental rights. This demonstrates that wealth generated through resource extraction does not produce the same democratic pressures as wealth generated through industrialization or innovation.

Wealth Inequality: The Great Distorter

The distribution of wealth appears to be more predictive of democratic health than the aggregate wealth. High GDP per capita in the United States ($75,492 PPP) coexists with significant inequality and decline in democracy.

  • Inequality and Voice: Research on civic engagement indicates that economic inequality skews political influence. In unequal societies, the wealthy have disproportionate access to policymakers through lobbying and campaign finance, while the poor are marginalized. This leads to policies that further entrench inequality, creating a cycle of exclusion.
  • Poverty and Vulnerability: In lower-income democracies, poverty makes the electorate vulnerable to clientelism. Vote buying was recorded in at least 17 national elections in 2024, a direct consequence of economic vulnerability where a vote is sold for immediate subsistence needs rather than cast for long-term policy goals.

Conclusion

As we have seen from history, authoritarians have often arisen from elections and embraced them. Through clandestine operations and rigged international observers, they establish themselves as purveyors of democracy while dismantling democratic institutions. The global decline in rule of law and increasing corruption pose threat to the “rule of the people”.

Voting is necessary for democracy, but it should not be exclusive. As @NotsoLalit says in the embedded tweet, when grievances are reduced to elections, democracy becomes a formality and free pass for politicians to make promises without delivering anything. Also, a sustainable democracy is not limited to the tenure of elected representatives. It has to be a continuous process.

Ensuring meaningful participation of people at all levels is the key to strengthening democratic institutions. Moreover, without a restoration of the rule of law, the ballot box risks becoming nothing more than a coffin for liberty. The task ahead is not just to get out the vote, but to ensure that the vote still matters.

Divisive Party Politics

Party Politics: Terrifying Divisions

In the ever-illusory modern democracy, party politics plays a significant role in organizing people, speaking for the well-being and development of the country, and raising voices against tyranny. However, parties often delve into demagoguery. And while the intraparty unity keeps cadres together (at times, to the level of sycophancy), interparty rivalries can sow divisions among the citizens even in issues related to humanity or national interests. Schisms have deepened so much that even families are fragmenting. Individuals have been atomized so much that the parties—the purveyors of democracy—have become authoritarian.

How Political Parties Create Divisions

Because there are individuals and groups that think differently about how politics should be conducted, many ideologies have developed over time. A political party sets its goals and the means of achieving goals according to the ideology it adopts. Ideology also allows parties to adopt the form of governance, such as autocracy, democracy, or theocracy, and the economic system, like capitalism, socialism, communism, and so on. These economic systems have also come to be defined as political ideologies on their own.

In most countries, political ideologies adopted by parties can be divided into left-wing and right-wing. The terminologies originated during the French Revolution in 1789. The supporters of traditional values and hierarchy sat to the right of the king in the National Assembly, whereas the revolutionaries demanding radical changes sat to his left. Eventually, right-wing politics adopted conservative philosophy, advocating limited government, free market capitalism, and strict immigration policies. Similarly, the left wing took up liberal philosophy, demanding equality, government market intervention, and more open immigration policies.

However, despite the relevance of the left-right framework as an analytical tool for understanding political competition, it simplifies a more complex reality. In some contexts, parties combine elements from both traditions; others may shift positions over time in response to social change.

Political parties may also be defined by the strategies they use to forward their ideologies and actions. They may be populists, where a single charismatic leader guides or directs followers, or issue-based, seeking to solve various issues even in the absence of a charming leader. Most parties flock around one or a few leaders and also carry issues that need to be solved.

In Nepal, a new kind of division has emerged in the recent decade. There are the older parties that stick to positions of power and are seen as corrupt. In the opposite spectrum are the newer parties that are cleaner, less experienced alternatives. This assortment is a result of generational conflict stemming from the indifference of the older generations to the voice of the younger citizens.

Even though the ideologies, philosophies, and strategies are often blurry, political parties present themselves as strictly adhering to a certain ideology, philosophy, or strategy. These are etched in the intraparty laws, policy papers, various publications, and eventually, in the minds of the followers. Parties may not explicitly say they are divisive, but the ideas become so indelible that they cannot accept the other spectrum. Party politics most often radicalize followers so much that they become their defenders even at the cost of their lives.

Depth of the Schisms

As if the vertical divisions of left- and right-wing politics were insufficient, political parties have now promoted horizontal divisions between generations. Radicalization of party followers and cadres has driven deep wedges between individuals, families, society, and even nations.

Politicization has reached such a serious state that no individual can be trusted. Opposing ideas are bashed immediately—online masks aggravating the issue even more. Fathers and sons, mothers and daughters, and brothers and sisters have petty fights in support of their political parties and ideologies. Moreover, political paradigms have turned into identities of societies and nations, sowing a deep sense of betrayal against those who oppose the views.

Consequences

The divisive party politics affects individuals, families, societies, and nations at different levels, ranging from discussions that can be solved easily to complexities resulting in wars involving different nations.

1. Solvable differences

Ideological differences can create intense debates. However, some of them can be solved by identifying common grounds and interests. Spectrums of ideas exist within the extreme ends of left and right. While extremities tend to dehumanize issues, the ideas in the middle are more humane and achievable. Solving differences between ideologies also leads to improved relations between the political actors.

2. Passionate rows and rivalries

Humans tend to cooperate to fulfill their interest, but more often, they love to maintain rivalry with those who have opposing views. Party politics enjoys maintaining rivalries because they (1) divide and rule, (2) have their ego inflated when they are proven correct, and (3) win elections when the opposing ideologies fail.

3. Ad hominem attacks

Disputes don’t always get solved, though. And parties don’t always involve ideologies. Ad hominem attacks, or personal slanders, are becoming increasingly common in political speeches. Because of the rising popularity of a leader and lack of impunity, rivalries become personal. As such, ideologies become obsolete, and cults develop around the leader. Loyal henchmen, in coordination of cabals, surround their cult leader.

4. Dishonesty/Moral corruption

Cults separate political leadership from the actual political realities. Obsequious henchmen inflate the ego. The leader and his party start believing that they are invincible. Corruption prevails. Rule of law is thrown out of the window. Dishonesty and immoral behaviours become the norm. Citizens become more divided.

5. Mob violence

Divisions sown by political parties, coupled with corruption, give rise to violence in societies. As impunity prevails, crimes get normalized. Cadres and supporters of political parties turn increasingly violent against rivals. Mob justice becomes the norm.

6. National disruption

Crowd psychology is different from that of the individuals in isolation. The increased intensity of mob violence can result in disruptions at national levels. If the parties who are in power suppress the dissent, they turn more authoritative. If they are displaced, the new forces are called revolutionaries. But if a revolution brings destruction and little to no hope, is it really a revolution?

7. Foreign Interference and Proxy Conflicts

Extreme polarization from party politics makes a nation vulnerable to foreign interference. When domestic parties prioritize defeating their rivals over national interest, they often seek external alliances to gain an upper hand. Consequently, the nation becomes a chessboard for larger geopolitical powers. By openly aligning with foreign regimes or accepting outside backing, domestic political parties act as proxies. This not only compromises the country’s sovereignty but can also drag citizens into prolonged, devastating proxy conflicts that serve foreign interests rather than local needs.

8. International Wars

Partisan politics does not remain confined within national borders. When political ideologies become rigid and moralized—portraying opponents not merely as rivals but as existential threats—such polarization can extend into foreign policy. States governed by highly ideological parties may begin to interpret international relations through the same lens of division that shapes domestic politics.

The twentieth century offers a significant illustration. The prolonged confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War was rooted not only in geopolitical competition but also in ideological antagonism between liberal capitalism and communism. Although it did not escalate into direct large-scale war between the two superpowers, it generated proxy conflicts across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Domestic political rhetoric in both countries reinforced the perception that compromise was weakness and coexistence was morally suspect.

Countering the Political Divide

Supporting a political ideology and debating against rivals can feel satisfying, but as we saw, dissent can spiral down to a dangerous territory. We should thus be careful not to allow party politics to disrupt the well-being of individuals, societies, and nations. Following are the suggestions to promote healthy discussions and debates.

1. Empathy

Ideological debates without empathy can easily turn into ad hominem attacks. If you understand why a person follows certain ideas about politics, you can agree with them on common matters. Even if you don’t, you can gracefully acknowledge their shortcomings. Such debates and discussions also help identify common ground.

2. Educating yourself about various ideologies

Political thoughts and actions don’t originate and arise in a vacuum. They are rooted in the conditions of society and their aspirations. When you learn about political ideologies, you know their origin, the goals they want to achieve, and the means to support them. As a result, you build empathy. You may also develop a new ideology from the analysis of shortcomings of the existing ideologies and expectations of your society.

3. Dissociation from party politics

Sometimes taking sides can be difficult. In such cases, if you dissociate from the ways parties think and operate, you can see the bigger picture. Thinking beyond the established rhetoric helps you identify the issues at hand, the stance taken by the parties, and their strengths and shortcomings. Such an analysis ultimately helps strengthen the rule of law and democracy.

4. Unity in humanitarian or national issues

If you are debating for or against a party or ideology, even in cases against dignified living, human rights, and national issues, take a break to think about how party politics has divided the people. Take measures to bridge gaps with the opposition and solve problems empathetically. If your party or ideology is not allowing you to take selfless actions, you will be doomed.

Conclusion

Political parties are indispensable to democratic governance. They organize representation, structure public debate, and provide mechanisms for accountability. Yet when loyalty to party eclipses commitment to constitutional principles, human dignity, and the rule of law, democratic competition can deteriorate into polarization and exclusion. Ideologies, which are meant to guide collective aspirations, may instead harden into identities that promote divisions and resist dialogue and compromise.

Unchecked party politics narrows the space for reasoned deliberation. It encourages citizens to perceive opponents as adversaries rather than fellow participants in a shared political community. Over time, such attitudes weaken social trust and strain the institutional foundations of democracy itself.

Countering this trajectory requires conscious civic effort. Empathy, intellectual openness, and a willingness to engage ideas critically rather than defensively can help preserve pluralism. Democratic societies thrive not in the absence of disagreement, but in their ability to manage disagreement constructively.

If citizens remain attentive to shared constitutional values and humanitarian principles beyond party lines, political competition need not become social fragmentation. The challenge is not to eliminate party politics, but to prevent it from eroding the very democratic culture it is meant to sustain.

Smash & Grab: Annexation of Sikkim—A Review

How does a country merge with another? Does a referendum held within 72 hours have legal validity? How do foreigners play in domestic issues? Indian journalist and editor Sunanda K. Dutta-Ray, who was close to the Chogyal of Sikkim (Sukhim/Denzong), explores these issues in detail in Smash & Grab: Annexation of Sikkim.

Book Cover of Smash & Grab: Annexation of Sikkim by Sunanda K. Datta-Ray

A Brief History of Sikkim

Independent Existence and British Shadows

Sikkim had an independent existence even before the Treaty of Sugauli between Nepal and the British East India Company in 1815. In 1642, Phuntsog Namgyal had become the first Chogyal of Sikkim. The term Chogyal is derived from Tibetan, which means ‘the gyalpo (king) who defends the chho (Dharma). After the Treaty of Tumlong in 1861, Sikkim, which was a British protectorate, became a protectorate of India when India became independent.

Plights as the Protectorate of India

Ever since India became independent from the British, the feeling that a republic should not have a monarchical protectorate had developed in the Indian administration. Nehru did not consider it a big deal. But in 1951, China established complete control over Tibet. After the Tibetan uprising in 1959 and the war with China in 1962, India became suspicious. Due to the religious-cultural ties between Lhasa and Gangtok, fearing that China might also take over Sikkim, India came to the side of annexing Sikkim.

However, since it had a democratic image and had helped Bangladesh gain independence, it was not possible for India to launch a direct military attack. Similarly, India controlled the communications, foreign affairs, and resources necessary for the development of Sikkim. The British colonial period also continued to interfere internally through political officials and chief executives.

Shifting Demographics, Politics, and Indian Interests

After the British protection, Nepali-speaking traders entered Sikkim, which was created by the Bhutia-Lepchas, in large numbers. By the 1970s, the Bhutia-Lepchas were only 25 per cent, i.e., a minority in their own country. However, since the power was with them, the majority Nepali-speaking people were afraid that something would happen. There were Kazis of all castes, but their power was waning as the Chhogyals had limited authority. During the power struggle, they began to seek democratic rights.

Lendup Dorji was one such Kazi. He did not have a good relationship with the Chogyal Palden Thondup Namgyal, who was based in Kalingpong. The rift between them widened after the Chogyal married Hope Cook and the Kazi married Elisa Marie. The Chogyal, who was trying to make Sikkim independent, lost popularity due to the Indians and their propaganda. A dictatorial rakshyah became his public image. On the other hand, leaders like the Kazi, Nar Bahadur Khatiwada, and Ramchandra Paudyal, who were trying to establish democracy, became widely praised.

With the involvement of Indian political officials, diplomats, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and the intelligence agency RAW, the Chogyal was constantly weakened, and after the 1973 movement, the Kazi was gradually made powerful. Ashok Raina’s ‘Inside RAW’ says that this movement was run by RAW. However, the real power lies with the Indian Chief Executive. B.S. Das starts working above Chogyal. After him, B.B. Lal becomes the Speaker of the Legislative Assembly and even assumes the powers of the Chief Justice.

The Referendum for Annexation of Sikkim

On April 14, 1975, he proposes the merger of Sikkim with India after the referendum. But Dutta-Ray makes a big question mark about the plebiscite being announced on the 10th, the voting on the 14th, and the results coming out overnight from remote places. Most people did not understand what the voting was for. Most of them thought it had been done to remove Chogyal as the head of the nation. Even journalists were not given proper access during the polls. Nar Bahadur Khatiwada later sent a memorandum to Morarji Desai, the Prime Minister after Indira Gandhi, saying that they were deceived. Former Prime Minister of Nepal Bishweshwor Prasad Koirala said that there was no referendum in Sikkim.

My Feelings on the book Smash & Grab: Annexation of Sikkim

Reading about how the simple-minded Chogyal and leaders of Sikkim were manipulated by clever Indians, I felt love for Sikkim and anger towards Indians. The Chogyal also seems to be at fault for not understanding the geopolitical pressures. Moreover, he could not reconcile with Lhendup Dorji on common national interests. Dorji, too, was so blinded by the prospect of gaining power over the Chogyal that he did not understand that he was only a pawn in the grand chessboard of geopolitics.

Datta-Ray weaves movie-like stories of characters, some of which are extremely moving, especially at the beginning. The ending, however, is abrupt. Since the book was first published in 1984, nine years after the annexation, the aftermath of the annexation could have been included, but it is not there. Moreover, the book has a high level of vocabulary, which slowed my reading.

One problem I have realised in reading the history of Sikkim is that there are several points of view. Smash & Grab: Annexation of Sikkim is biased towards Chogyal in the book. Angles from the “revolutionaries” in Sikkim, Indian bureaucrats, diplomats, and RAW agents portray different pictures. I will be back with those perspectives as soon as possible.

पृथ्वीनारायण शाहका ५ आर्थिक रणनीतिहरू

नोट: यो लेख सूर्य विक्रम ज्ञवालीद्वारा लिखित पृथ्वीनारायण शाह पुस्तकको अध्याय २३ मा आधारित छ।

जब हामी पृथ्वीनारायण शाहको बारेमा सोच्दछौं, दिमागमा आउने छवि लगभग सधैं एक अथक सैन्य विजेताको हुन्छ। उहाँ त्यो राजा हुनुहुन्छ जसले आफ्नो तरवारको धारले दर्जनौं साना राज्यहरूलाई नेपाल राष्ट्रमा एकीकृत गर्नुभयो। यो तस्वीर सत्य भए पनि अपूर्ण छ। यसले योद्धाको पछाडिको वास्तुकारलाई सम्झन्छ।

पृथ्वी नारायण शाहका आर्थिक रणनीतिहरू

पृथ्वीनारायण शाहको एकीकरण अभियानको वास्तविक प्रतिभा केवल उनको सैन्य रणनीतिमा मात्र थिएन तर उनको परिष्कृत, दूरदर्शी र प्रायः निर्दयी आर्थिक राज्यकलामा थियो। उनले जितको युद्ध जति उग्र रूपमा लडे, आफ्ना शत्रुहरूको अर्थतन्त्रलाई घाँटी थिचेर आफ्नो नयाँ राज्यको लागि संरक्षणवादी जग बसाले। यो नदेखिने आर्थिक शक्तिहरूको कथा हो जसले साँच्चै राष्ट्रलाई आकार दियो।

५ आर्थिक रणनीतिहरू

१. आत्मसमर्पणका लागि प्रेरित गर्ने

काठमाडौं उपत्यकाका समृद्ध मल्ल राज्यहरू विरुद्ध पृथ्वीनारायण शाहको प्राथमिक रणनीति प्रत्यक्ष आक्रमण थिएन तर योजनाबद्ध आर्थिक घाँटी थिच्नु थियो। १७४४ मा रणनीतिक हिमाली किल्ला नुवाकोट कब्जा गरेपछि, उनले उपत्यकालाई तिब्बतसँग जोड्ने मुख्य व्यापार मार्गको नियन्त्रण कब्जा गरे – मल्ल अर्थतन्त्रको जीवनरक्त।

यो एकल चालसँगै, उनले दण्डनीय आर्थिक नाकाबन्दी स्थापना गरे। मल्ल राजाहरूलाई एक पटक एकल भन्सार शुल्क तिर्ने सामानहरूले अब उनलाई दोस्रो, छुट्टै शुल्क तिर्नु पर्थ्यो। यसले व्यवस्थित रूपमा उपत्यकालाई आकर्षक ट्रान्स-हिमालय व्यापारबाट काट्यो जुन यसको धनको प्राथमिक स्रोत थियो। टाढाको रणनीतिकार हुनुको सट्टा, उनी यो नयाँ आर्थिक हतियारको हातमा प्रयोग हुने सूक्ष्म प्रबन्धक थिए। तिब्बतबाट सुन खरिद गर्ने जिम्मेवारीमा रहेका आफ्ना एजेन्टलाई लेखेको पत्रमा उनले आफ्नो चतुर, व्यावहारिक दिमाग प्रकट गरे:

“सुन न गाली १६ रुपैयाँ तोला दिन्छ भने किन्नु। यसरी किन्न घटिया सुन न लिनु । तिब्बतीहरू सुनमा पितलको धुलो मिसाउने हुनाले सो कुराको विचार गरी सुन किन्नु ।… सोह्र रुपैयाँ तोला दिँयेनन् भने सोह्रमा एक सुक्का थपेर पनि किन्नू । थोरै सुन पाइने भए १७ रुपैयाँ तोला देखि न बढ्नु तथा १०–१२ हजार तोला सुन पाइये औ गालेर बेच्छन् भने १८ रुपैयाँ तोला दिएर पनि किन्नु।”

राजधानीमा आफ्नो अन्तिम आक्रमण हुनुभन्दा धेरै अघि, पृथ्वीनारायण शाहले बाहिरबाट आर्थिक संकटको सिर्जना गरे, जसले गर्दा निर्णायक युद्धहरू आउँदा मल्ल राज्यहरू आर्थिक रूपमा कमजोर र आन्तरिक रूपमा कमजोर भएको सुनिश्चित भयो।

२. हिमालयका असम्भव विश्वव्यापी व्यापारीहरू

पृथ्वीनारायण शाहको उदय हुनुभन्दा पहिले, यस क्षेत्रको चहलपहल व्यापारलाई उल्लेखनीय रूपमा विविध व्यापारी समूहद्वारा नियन्त्रित गरिएको थियो। तिनीहरूमध्ये प्रमुख काठमाडौँका नेवार व्यापारीहरू थिए, जसले तिब्बतसँग गहिरो व्यावसायिक सम्बन्ध स्थापित गरेका थिए, र राम्रोसँग जोडिएका कश्मीरी मुस्लिम व्यापारीहरू थिए, जसका व्यापारिक घरहरू भारतदेखि ल्हासासम्म फैलिएका थिए।

सबैभन्दा अचम्मको कुरा के छ भने, अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय व्यापारीहरूको एक प्रमुख समूह गोसाईं तपस्वीहरू थिए। यी पूजनीय पवित्र पुरुषहरूले आफ्नो धार्मिक हैसियत र आवागमनको स्वतन्त्रतालाई सीमा पार गर्न प्रयोग गरे, उच्च मूल्य, कम मात्राको सामानको शक्तिशाली व्यापारीको रूपमा काम गरे। नाकाबन्दीले उनीहरूको व्यवसायलाई कमजोर बनायो, र यी प्रभावशाली व्यापारीहरू – गोसाईं, कश्मीरी र नेवारहरू – पृथ्वी नारायण शाहको विरुद्धमा लागे। आफ्नो हताशतामा, तिनीहरू उनका उग्र विरोधी बने, ब्रिटिश इस्ट इन्डिया कम्पनीलाई उनको विरुद्ध सैन्य अभियान सुरु गर्न पनि उक्साए।

३. विदेशी शक्तिहरूलाई खाडीमा राख्ने कट्टरपन्थी दृष्टिकोण

आफ्नो विजय पूरा गरेपछि, पृथ्वी नारायण शाहले संरक्षणवादको कट्टरपन्थी आर्थिक नीति लागू गरे। उनको अटल लक्ष्य व्यापारबाट हुने सबै नाफा नेपाल भित्र र नेपालीहरूको हातमा रहोस् भन्ने थियो। उनको योजना विदेशी व्यापारीहरूलाई देशको भित्री भागमा प्रवेश गर्न निषेध गर्ने थियो। बरु, उनले पर्सा जस्ता सीमामा तोकिएका व्यापारिक चौकीहरूको कल्पना गरे, जहाँ सबै अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय व्यापार सञ्चालन हुनेछ।

यो नीति युरोपेली उपनिवेशवादको गहिरो र पूर्वज्ञानी डरबाट प्रेरित थियो। उनले देखे कि कसरी एशियाभरि राजनीतिक र सैन्य अधीनताको लागि वाणिज्यलाई बहानाको रूपमा प्रयोग गरिँदैछ। ब्रिटिश इस्ट इन्डिया कम्पनीको बारेमा उनको दृष्टिकोण एक शक्तिशाली चेतावनीमा कैद गरिएको थियो:

“दक्षिणका समुद्रको बादशाहसँग घा ता राख्नु तर त्यो महाचोर छ”

उनले बुझे कि विदेशी व्यापारीहरूलाई स्वतन्त्र लगाम दिनु भनेको शक्तिशाली संस्थालाई पाइला राख्न निमन्त्रणा हो। यो केवल सिद्धान्त मात्र थिएन; यो फलामको मुट्ठीले लागू गरिएको नीति थियो। आफ्नो विजय पछि, उनले विदेशी व्यापारीहरूलाई मात्र प्रतिबन्ध लगाएनन् – उनले तिनीहरूलाई निष्कासित गरे। जसरी उनले क्यापुचिन मिसनरीहरूलाई हटाए, त्यसरी नै उनले शक्तिशाली गोसाई व्यापारीहरूलाई पनि निष्कासित गरे, आफ्नो प्रभावको नेटवर्क भएको कुनै पनि बाह्य समूहलाई हटाउने आफ्नो पूर्ण दृढ संकल्प प्रदर्शन गरे।

४. एक राष्ट्र, एक सिक्का एक समयमा बनाउने

शताब्दीऔंदेखि, काठमाडौँ उपत्यकाका मल्ल राजाहरूले बनाएका चाँदीका सिक्काहरू हिमालयको विश्वसनीय, प्रमुख मुद्रा थिए, जुन आकर्षक तिब्बत व्यापारको लागि आवश्यक थियो। तर समयसँगै, शासकहरूले सस्तो धातुहरूले तिनीहरूलाई कमजोर बनाउन थालेपछि तिनीहरूको गुणस्तर घट्दै गयो, जसले गर्दा शताब्दीऔं पुरानो विश्वास क्षय भयो।

रणनीतिक खुलापनलाई पहिचान गर्दै, पृथ्वीनारायण शाहले मल्लहरूको आर्थिक सार्वभौमिकतामा प्रत्यक्ष आक्रमण गरे। १७४९ मा पहाडी क्षेत्रहरूमा आफ्नै उच्च गुणस्तरका चाँदीका सिक्काहरू टकसार गर्ने उनी पहिलो राजा बने। यो आर्थिक विध्वंसको एक उत्कृष्ट अभ्यास थियो। तिब्बतमा स्वीकृति सुनिश्चित गर्न, उनले मल्ल सिक्काहरूको सामान्य शैली र तौलको नक्कल गरे। यो नयाँ, शुद्ध मुद्रा केवल विनिमयको माध्यम मात्र थिएन; यो मल्लहरूको प्रतिष्ठालाई चकनाचुर पार्न गरिएको एक विघटनकारी नवप्रवर्तन थियो।

५. तिब्बतले बेलायतीहरूको होइन, नेपालको पक्षमा रहेको आश्चर्यजनक कारण

पृथ्वीनारायण शाहको नाकाबन्दीले नेपाल हुँदै परम्परागत व्यापार मार्ग बन्द गरेपछि, ब्रिटिश इस्ट इन्डिया कम्पनीले एउटा खुलापन देख्यो। तिब्बतसँग प्रत्यक्ष व्यावसायिक सम्बन्ध स्थापित गर्न उत्सुक गभर्नर, वारेन हेस्टिंग्सले १७७४ मा पञ्चेन लामासँग वार्ता गर्न जर्ज बोगल नामक दूत पठाए।

नतिजा विपरीत आयो। बेलायतीहरूबाट सतर्क र चीनको कट्टर ब्रिटिश विरोधी नीतिहरूबाट प्रभावित तिब्बतीहरू आफ्नो मनसायप्रति गहिरो शंका गर्थे। गोरखा विजयबाट उत्पन्न अवरोधका बाबजुद पनि, उनीहरूले अन्ततः नेपाल हुँदै आफ्नो शताब्दी पुरानो, यदि अस्थायी रूपमा टुटेको भए पनि, व्यापार सम्बन्धमा अडिग रहन रुचाए। उनीहरूले ज्ञात नेपालीहरूलाई अज्ञात र सम्भावित खतरनाक ब्रिटिशहरू भन्दा राम्रो साझेदारको रूपमा देखे। बोगलको मिसन असफलता थियो, जुन पुरानो नेपाल-तिब्बत आर्थिक सम्बन्धको स्थायी शक्तिको प्रमाण थियो जुन ब्रिटिश साम्राज्यले पनि सजिलै तोड्न सक्दैनथ्यो।

वाणिज्य साम्राज्य

पृथ्वी नारायण शाहको विरासत केवल सैन्य विजेताको भन्दा धेरै जटिल छ। उनी एक दूरदर्शी आर्थिक वास्तुकार थिए जसले बुझेका थिए कि राष्ट्रहरू युद्धभूमिमा मात्र नभई बजार र टक्सारहरूमा पनि निर्माण हुन्छन्। उपत्यकाको व्यावसायिक घाँटी थिच्ने र यसको मुद्राको विध्वंसदेखि, शक्तिशाली विदेशी व्यापारीहरूको बहिष्कार र ब्रिटिश साम्राज्यलाई नै पराजित गर्नेसम्म, एकीकरणको लागि उनको खाका आर्थिक युद्धको जित जत्तिकै सैन्य शक्तिको विजय थियो।

उनको कथाले हामीलाई सोच्नको लागि गहिरो प्रश्न छोड्छ: यदि यो उग्र संरक्षणवादी दृष्टिकोण शताब्दीयौंसम्म कायम राखिएको भए नेपाल र क्षेत्रको आर्थिक मार्ग कसरी फरक हुन सक्थ्यो?

The 5 Economic Strategies of Prithvi Narayan Shah

Note: This article is based on the Chapter 23 of the book Prithvi Narayan Shah by Surya Bikram Gyawali

When we think of King Prithvi Narayan Shah, the image that comes to mind is almost always one of a relentless military conqueror. He unified dozens of petty principalities into the nation of Nepal with the edge of his sword. This picture, while true, is incomplete. It misses the architect behind the warrior.

Prithvi Narayan Shah and his economic strategies

The true genius of Prithvi Narayan Shah’s unification campaign was not just in his military tactics but in his sophisticated, visionary, and often ruthless economic statecraft. He waged a war of commerce as fiercely as he waged a war of conquest, strangling his enemies’ economies and laying a protectionist foundation for his new kingdom. This is the story of the unseen economic forces that truly shaped a nation.

The 5 Economic Strategies

1. How to Strangle an Economy into Submission

Prithvi Narayan Shah’s primary strategy against the prosperous Malla kingdoms of the Kathmandu Valley was not a frontal assault but a calculated economic strangulation. After capturing the strategic hill fort of Nuwakot in 1744, he seized control of the main trade route linking the valley to Tibet, the lifeblood of the Malla economy.

With this single move, he established a punishing economic blockade. Goods that once paid a single customs duty to the Malla kings now had to pay a second, separate duty to him. This systematically cut off the valley from the lucrative trans-Himalayan commerce that was its primary source of wealth. Far from being a distant strategist, he was a hands-on micromanager of this new economic weapon. In a letter to his agent in charge of purchasing gold from Tibet, he revealed his shrewd, pragmatic mind:

“If they give pure gold for 16 rupees per tola, buy it… If they don’t give it for 16, add a quarter-rupee… If much gold is available, don’t go above 17… but if 10-12 thousand tolas can be had and sold at a profit, then buy it even for 18 rupees per tola.”

Long before his final assault on the capital, Prithvi Narayan Shah engineered an economic crisis from the outside, ensuring the Malla kingdoms were financially weakened and internally fragile when the decisive battles came.

2. The Unlikely Global Traders of the Himalayas

Before Prithvi Narayan Shah’s rise, the region’s bustling trade was controlled by a remarkably diverse group of merchants. Prominent among them were the Newar traders of Kathmandu, who had established deep commercial ties with Tibet, and the well-connected Kashmiri Muslim merchants, whose trading houses spanned from India to Lhasa.

Most surprisingly, a key group of international traders were the Gosain ascetics. These revered holy men used their religious status and freedom of movement to travel across borders, acting as powerful merchants of high-value, low-volume goods. The blockade crippled their business, and these influential traders, namely, the Gosains, Kashmiris, and Newars turned against Prithvi Narayan Shah. In their desperation, they became his fierce opponents, even instigating the British East India Company to launch a military expedition against him.

3. A Radical Vision to Keep Foreign Powers at Bay

After completing his conquest, Prithvi Narayan Shah implemented a radical economic policy of protectionism. His unwavering goal was to ensure all profits from trade remained within Nepal and in the hands of Nepalis. His plan was to prohibit foreign traders from entering the country’s interior. Instead, he envisioned designated trading posts at the border, such as Parsa, where all international business would be conducted.

This policy was driven by a deep and prescient fear of European colonialism. He saw how commerce was being used as a pretext for political and military subjugation across Asia. His view of the British East India Company was captured in a powerful warning:

Maintain relations with the emperor of the southern seas, but he is a great thief.

He understood that allowing foreign traders free rein was an invitation for a powerful entity to gain a foothold. This wasn’t just theory; it was policy enforced with an iron fist. After his victory, he didn’t just restrict foreign traders—he expelled them. Just as he had removed the Capuchin missionaries, he cast out the powerful Gosain traders, demonstrating his absolute resolve to eliminate any external group with its own network of influence.

4. Forging a Nation, One Coin at a Time

For centuries, the silver coins minted by the Malla kings of the Kathmandu Valley were the trusted, dominant currency of the Himalayas, essential for the lucrative Tibet trade. But over time, their quality had degraded as rulers began debasing them with cheaper metals, eroding that centuries-old trust.

Recognizing a strategic opening, Prithvi Narayan Shah launched a direct assault on the Mallas’ economic sovereignty. Starting in 1749, he became the first king in the hill regions to mint his own high-quality silver coins. This was a masterstroke of economic subversion. To ensure acceptance in Tibet, he mimicked the general style and weight of the Malla coins. This new, pure currency was not just a medium of exchange; it was a disruptive innovation designed to shatter the Mallas’ prestige.

5. The Surprising Reason Tibet Sided with Nepal, Not the British

After Prithvi Narayan Shah’s blockade sealed off the traditional trade route through Nepal, the British East India Company saw an opening. The governor, Warren Hastings, eager to establish a direct commercial link with Tibet, dispatched an envoy named George Bogle in 1774 to negotiate with the Panchen Lama.

The outcome was counter-intuitive. The Tibetans, wary of the British and influenced by China’s staunchly anti-British policies, were deeply suspicious of their intentions. Despite the disruption caused by the Gorkha conquest, they ultimately preferred to stick with their centuries-old, if temporarily broken, trade relationship through Nepal. They saw the known Nepalis as a better partner than the unknown and potentially dangerous British. Bogle’s mission was a failure, a testament to the enduring strength of the age-old Nepal-Tibet economic connection that not even the British Empire could easily break.

Conclusion: An Empire of Commerce

Prithvi Narayan Shah’s legacy is far more complex than that of a mere military conqueror. He was a visionary economic architect who understood that nations are built not only on battlefields but also in marketplaces and mints. From the commercial strangulation of the valley and the subversion of its currency to the exclusion of powerful foreign traders and the outmanoeuvring of the British Empire itself, his blueprint for unification was as much a triumph of economic warfare as it was of military might.

His story leaves us with a profound question to ponder: How might the economic trajectory of Nepal and the region have been different if this fiercely protectionist vision had been maintained for centuries?

How Nepal Forms a Government: The 5-Step Constitutional Roadmap

Constitution Study #17: A step-by-step description of the constitutional provisions (Article 76) for forming a government in Nepal

The period following a general election in Nepal is often chaotic. News cycles fill with talk of negotiations, power-sharing deals, and political “horse-trading”, leaving many citizens confused about what comes next. The uncertainty around which party or coalition wins or forms a government is a bigger battleground than the polls themselves.

Yet, amidst this perceived chaos, the Constitution of Nepal provides a surprisingly clear, step-by-step roadmap for forming a government. This framework, detailed in Article 76, is designed to navigate the complexities of a multi-party system. This article breaks down that complex constitutional process into five simple, understandable steps, framing it as a constitutional drama of escalating stakes.

Steps of government formation in Nepal according to Article 76.

Step 1: The Straightforward Path – A Clear Majority

The first and most straightforward method for forming a government is outlined in Article 76, Clause (1) of the Constitution. If a single political party wins a clear majority of seats in the House of Representatives, the President appoints the parliamentary leader of that party as the Prime Minister. This is the simplest and most stable path to forming a government.

This scenario represents the ideal for stable governance, as it provides a clear mandate and avoids the need for complex negotiations. However, in Nepal’s political landscape, a single-party majority has become a rarity. This is largely due to a political culture where parties are often feudalistic in nature and centred around their topmost leaders rather than cohesive ideologies, frequently resulting in fractured electoral mandates. The instability that challenges Nepal’s governance often stems from the fact that this first, ideal step is seldom achieved.

Step 2: When No One Wins Outright – The Art of the Coalition

When no single party secures a majority, the process moves to Article 76, Clause (2). Under this provision, the President appoints a member of the House of Representatives who can prove they have majority support through an alliance of two or more parties. This is the formation of a coalition government.

This is the most common path to power, reflecting a political culture where parties, often centred on individual leaders rather than ideology, engage in intense political broking. This necessity for compromise contributes directly to the “frequent changes in government” that challenge Nepal’s stability, as alliances are often transactional and built on fragile power-sharing agreements rather than durable policy consensus. Managing the competing demands of coalition partners often leads to policy gridlock and fragile alliances.

Election coalitions can break down, and new government coalitions can form, as evidenced in the aftermath of the 2022 elections. The then CPN Maoist (Centre) ran the elections along with Nepali Congress, but when the time for forming the government came, it broke the alliance and joined the other parties: CPN (UML), Rastriya Swatantra Party, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, People’s Socialist Party, Janamat Party, and Nagrik Unmukti Party, and three independents, with Pushpa Kamal Dahal heading the government.

Step 3: If Coalitions Crumble – The Largest Party’s Chance

If a coalition government cannot be formed within thirty days, the Constitution provides a third option under Article 76, Clause (3). The President will then appoint the parliamentary leader of the single largest party in the House of Representatives as Prime Minister. However, this appointment is conditional. As per Clause (4), this Prime Minister must win a “vote of confidence” from the House within thirty days to remain in power.

This provision acts as a critical safeguard to prevent complete political deadlock when coalition talks fail. It ensures that a government can be formed, even if it lacks an upfront majority. However, this type of minority government is inherently fragile. This precariousness forces the largest party to govern not by mandate, but by perpetual negotiation, often making it vulnerable to the shifting allegiances of smaller parties.

In 2023, after the CPN (UML) withdrew its support for Pushpa Kamal Dahal, the Nepali Congress had the opportunity to lead according to this provision. However, the Congress did not take a risk and joined with the CPN (UML). KP Sharma Oli was once again appointed Prime Minister according to Article 76(2).

Step 4: The Last Attempt – Any Member’s Claim

Where Step 3 empowers the leader of the single largest party, Step Four dramatically widens the field. If the minority Prime Minister from Step Three fails to win the vote of confidence, the process moves to a crucial and often contentious final attempt under Article 76, Clause (5). The President will then appoint any member of the House who can present grounds (e.g., letters of support from a sufficient number of members) demonstrating they are able to win a vote of confidence. This Prime Minister must also secure that vote of confidence within thirty days, as stipulated in Clause (6).

This clause is the constitution’s most radical attempt to break parliamentary gridlock. By allowing any member to stake a claim, it theoretically bypasses the rigid, hierarchical party structures that often cause deadlock. It opens the door for consensus candidates to emerge from outside the established leadership, but has also become a focal point of constitutional debate, as it can trigger intense political maneuvering and legal challenges regarding what constitutes valid “grounds” for a claim.

Step 5: Dissolution and a New Election

If all previous attempts fail, including the Prime Minister appointed in Step 4 being unable to secure a vote of confidence, the process reaches its definitive conclusion under Article 76, Clause (7). In this event, the President, on the recommendation of the Prime Minister, will dissolve the House of Representatives and call for new general elections to be held within six months.

This is the constitution’s last resort: a political circuit breaker designed to prevent a complete system overload by returning power to its ultimate source—the people. This step embodies the principle of popular sovereignty enshrined in the constitution’s preamble, ensuring that when the elected representatives fail, the ultimate authority returns to the people. However, it comes at a significant cost, ushering in a period of political instability and the considerable expense of another national election.

Conclusion: A Framework for Stability or a Recipe for Intrigue?

The Constitution of Nepal lays out a detailed, multi-layered process for government formation. It is designed to exhaust every possible avenue for creating a functional government from the elected parliament before returning to the voters for a new mandate. This five-step cascade is a direct response to the nation’s complex political realities. This cycle of formation and dissolution at the federal level has cascading effects, often delaying the implementation of laws and policies crucial for empowering Nepal’s provincial and local governments and deepening its fragile federalism.

This leaves us with a critical question for the future of Nepal’s democracy: does this intricate, multi-stage process serve as a robust framework for stability in a fragmented polity, or does this complexity create perverse incentives for the political manoeuvring and constitutional brinkmanship it is designed to prevent?

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